原油周报（SC)：美伊局势反复无常，油价高位宽幅波动-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bullish on crude oil [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Middle - East geopolitical situation remains tense, the transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is interrupted, and concerns about supply disruptions are the main drivers for short - term oil price increases. Although countries are releasing strategic oil reserves, the impact is limited [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply (Medium - to - long - term): EIA predicts a 1.5657 million barrels per day increase in crude oil supply in 2026, mainly from non - OPEC+ regions. OPEC expects a supply of 106.70 million barrels per day in 2026, and if OPEC+ maintains the December 2025 production level, the 2026 production will be 170,000 barrels per day lower than demand. IEA predicts an 1.1 million barrels per day increase in oil supply in 2026, a significant downward revision from the previous forecast due to the Middle - East war [3] - Demand (Medium - to - long - term): EIA expects global crude oil demand in 2026 to be 104.79 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.202 million barrels per day compared to 2025 and a 29,300 barrels per day downward revision from the previous month's forecast. OPEC expects global oil demand in 2026 to be 106.52 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.3805 million barrels per day compared to 2025, and a 1.34 million barrels per day increase in 2027. IEA expects global oil consumption in 2026 to be 104.77 million barrels per day, an increase of 849,400 barrels per day compared to 2025 but a 109,000 barrels per day downward revision from the previous month's forecast [3] - Inventory (Short - term): As of the week ending March 13, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.156 million barrels, with an expected increase of 383,000 barrels and a previous increase of 3.824 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories in Oklahoma increased by 944,000 barrels, with a previous increase of 117,000 barrels. Refined oil inventories decreased by 2.527 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 1.525 million barrels and a previous decrease of 1.349 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 5.436 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 1.607 million barrels and a previous decrease of 3.64 million barrels [3] - Oil - producing Country Policies (Medium - to - long - term): Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) in the UAE has been forced to implement large - scale production shutdowns, with its daily crude oil production more than halved. The International Energy Agency announced that Japan, Canada, and South Korea will be the main contributors to the large - scale emergency oil reserve release operation in response to the supply disruption caused by the Iran war, and member countries have contributed 426 million barrels of oil, with 172 million barrels from the United States [3] - Geopolitics (Short - term): The U.S. Treasury Secretary said that the U.S. has not attacked Iran's energy infrastructure, has allowed Iranian oil to continue to be transported through the Gulf, and may lift sanctions on Iranian oil at sea in the coming days. The U.S. may also release strategic oil reserves again to suppress oil prices. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched the "True Commitment - 4" 69th wave of operations, targeting Israel. Trump said that the U.S. is considering gradually downgrading military operations against Iran and will no longer be responsible for the guard and patrol of the Strait of Hormuz [3] - Macro - finance (Short - term): According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut in June is 11.2%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 88.8%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 77.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 22.6%. As of the week ending March 7, the initial jobless claims were 213,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week and lower than the market expectation of 215,000. The continued jobless claims were 1.85 million, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week [3] - Trading Strategy: For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, it is also recommended to wait and see [3] 3.2 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - Price Changes: SC crude oil increased by 3.04% to 773.6 yuan per barrel, Brent crude oil increased by 0.50% to 104.41 dollars per barrel, and WTI crude oil decreased by 1.23% to 98.09 dollars per barrel. Gasoline prices increased by 8.14%, ICE diesel prices increased by 3.25%, high - sulfur fuel oil prices increased by 0.55%, and low - sulfur fuel oil prices increased by 0.18% [5] - Inventory Changes: U.S., European, and Singaporean oil product inventories showed different changes. For example, diesel inventories decreased by 2.29%, fuel oil inventories increased by 3.26%, and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 4.08%. Chinese oil inventories also had various changes, such as gasoline commercial inventories increasing by 0.24% and diesel commercial inventories increasing by 0.95% [5] - Refinery Operating Rates: The operating rate of Chinese state - owned refineries decreased by 6.13% to 75.22%, the operating rate of Chinese independent refineries increased by 0.82% to 43.99%, the U.S. refinery operating rate increased by 0.60% to 91.4%, and the Japanese refinery operating rate decreased by 8.40% to 72.5% [5] - Production: U.S. crude oil production decreased by 0.07% to 13.668 million barrels per day [5] 3.3 Futures Market Data - Market Review: The U.S. - Iran situation is volatile, and oil prices fluctuate widely at high levels. Geopolitical risks dominate the international crude oil market. As of March 20, the closing price of the WTI crude oil main contract was 98.09 dollars per barrel, a weekly decrease of 1.22 dollars per barrel (-1.03%); the closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 104.41 dollars per barrel, a weekly increase of 0.52 dollars per barrel (+0.50%); the closing price of the SC crude oil main contract was 773.6 yuan per barrel, a weekly increase of 22.8 yuan per barrel (+3.04%) [7] - Month - to - Month Spreads and Internal - External Spreads: Near - month spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads continued to widen [10] - Forward Curves: Month - to - month spreads strengthened significantly [21] - Crack Spreads: Gasoline and diesel crack spreads remained at high levels [24] 3.4 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production - Global Production: In January 2026, EIA data shows that global crude oil and related liquid production was 106.33 million barrels per day, a decrease of 1.741 million barrels per day compared to December 2025. OPEC data shows that OPEC countries' crude oil production was 28.453 million barrels per day, a decrease of 135,000 barrels per day compared to December 2025, and non - OPEC DoC countries' crude oil production was 13.996 million barrels per day, a decrease of 304,000 barrels per day compared to December 2025. IEA data shows that OPEC countries' crude oil production was 29.28 million barrels per day, an increase of 410,000 barrels per day compared to December 2025, and non - OPEC DoC countries' crude oil production was 14 million barrels per day, a decrease of 580,000 barrels per day compared to December 2025 [45] - U.S. Production: As of the week ending March 13, U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels to 13.67 million barrels per day; crude oil exports increased by 1.464 million barrels per day to 4.898 million barrels per day, and imports increased by 772,000 barrels per day to 7.194 million barrels per day; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory remained unchanged at 415.4 million barrels, and the four - week average supply of crude oil products reached 21.041 million barrels per day, a 2.14% increase compared to the same period last year. As of the week ending March 20, the total number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. was 552, with a previous value of 553 [67] - Inventory - U.S. Inventory: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 6.156 million barrels, and Cushing inventories increased by 944,000 barrels [68] - International Inventory: Northwest European crude oil inventories decreased, and Singaporean fuel oil inventories decreased [74] - Demand - U.S. Demand: Refinery operating rates increased by 0.60% to 91.40%, and crude oil processing volume increased by 90,000 barrels per day to 15.96 million barrels per day. Gasoline implied demand was 9.6766 million barrels per day, a decrease of 443,800 barrels per day compared to the previous week; distillate implied demand was 5.451 million barrels per day, an increase of 135,300 barrels per day compared to the previous week [98] - Chinese Demand: In the 12th week of 2026 (March 13 - 19), the capacity utilization rate of Chinese independent refineries for refined oil products was 57.49%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of independent refineries in regions such as South China, Shandong, and East China decreased significantly. In the week of March 13 - 19, 2026, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Shandong local refineries was 54.29%, a 0.52% decrease compared to the previous week and an 8.17% increase compared to the same period last year [100][101] - Macro - finance: U.S. Treasury yields increased, and the U.S. dollar index strengthened [122] - CFTC Positions: The speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil increased [125]