有色金属周报：滞胀交易升温，有色板块大幅走低-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report's industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East situation remains tense, with the continuous closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to some oil and gas facilities, leading to rising energy prices. This has increased market risk - aversion sentiment, cooled the global economic recovery expectation, and pressured the non - ferrous metals sector [8][89][193]. - The Fed's hawkish stance in March has significantly cooled the interest - rate cut expectation and increased the interest - rate hike expectation, causing the US dollar index to strengthen and further pressuring the non - ferrous metals sector [8][89][193]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Copper prices are expected to decline due to the tense Middle - East situation; zinc prices are expected to fluctuate weakly; nickel and stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely or oscillate [8][89][193]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The prices of most non - ferrous metals have shown different degrees of change. For example, the daily increase of industrial silicon is 2.05%, and the weekly decrease is 2.54%; the daily decrease of LME copper is 3.09%, and the weekly decrease is 7.07% [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - Macro Factors: The tense Middle - East situation and the Fed's hawkish stance are negative for copper prices [8]. - Raw Material End: The spot processing fee of copper ore is decreasing, and the port inventory is slightly decreasing, indicating a tight supply situation [8]. - Smelting End: The loss of smelters using spot copper ore has slightly increased, while the profit of smelters using long - term contract copper ore has increased [8]. - Demand End: The sharp decline in copper prices has increased the downstream's willingness to purchase, and the operating rates of refined copper rod and recycled copper rod enterprises have increased [8]. - Inventory: The global visible copper inventory has decreased from a high level [8]. - Investment Viewpoint: Bearish on copper prices, as the tense Middle - East situation may lead to a decline in copper prices, and there is still a risk of further decline if the conflict persists [8]. - Trading Strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and pay attention to the Middle - East situation, Fed policy, and copper inventory [8]. 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - Macro Factors: The tense Middle - East situation and the cooling of the global central banks' interest - rate cut expectation are negative for zinc prices [89]. - Raw Material End: The average domestic processing fee remains stable, while the import processing fee continues to decline. The shipping cost of zinc concentrate has increased, and the increase in processing fees may be limited [89]. - Smelting End: The zinc ingot supply in March shows a recovery trend, and the smelting profit has been repaired. However, the overseas smelting cost is under pressure due to the increase in natural gas prices [89]. - Demand End: The downstream galvanizing operation is okay, but some enterprises face problems such as inventory backlog and difficult payment collection. The peak - season performance of terminal demand is not obvious [89]. - Inventory: After the sharp decline in zinc prices, the replenishment demand has been released, and the social inventory has decreased [89]. - Investment Viewpoint: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Geopolitical factors are the key to zinc prices, and short - term volatility may remain high. It is recommended that investors hedge risks [89]. - Trading Strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and pay attention to LME zinc inventory and the Middle - East situation [89]. 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - Macro Factors: The tense Middle - East situation and the Fed's hawkish stance are negative for nickel and stainless - steel prices [193]. - Raw Material End: Although the RKAB quota for nickel ore in Indonesia has been approved, production accidents and bad weather have affected the supply. The nickel ore premium remains high, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing [193]. - Smelting End: The production of pure nickel in March is expected to increase, but the production of some nickel plants in Indonesia has been suspended. The supply of MHP raw materials is a concern due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [193]. - Demand End: The price of stainless steel fluctuates weakly, and the spot trading is stable. The steel mill's production plan in March has increased, but the downstream demand release is limited. There is still a rush - to - export demand for precursors in the new - energy field [193]. - Inventory: The global nickel inventory remains at a high level [193]. - Investment Viewpoint: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to pay attention to the RKAB approval and policy changes in Indonesia and macro - economic sentiment. In the long - term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [193]. - Trading Strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and wait for low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the nickel - related policies of resource - producing countries and global macro - economic disturbances [193].