中辉有色观点-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Wait for the price to stop falling [1] - Silver: Observe mainly [1] - Copper: Observe [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: Decline [1] - Lithium carbonate: Wide - range oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious metals are affected by liquidity crisis and recession trading, with gold and silver prices dropping significantly. Although there are short - term suppressions, the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged [1][2] - Due to the intensification of concerns about global economic recession, copper prices are oscillating weakly in the short term, but the long - term outlook is not overly pessimistic [1][4][6] - Zinc prices are under pressure in the short term due to the downturn in the non - ferrous sector, but in the long run, it is necessary to wait for the resonance of macro and micro factors [1][7][9] - Aluminum prices have support due to the tightening of overseas ore supply, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the short term [1][10][13] - Nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be observed mainly, paying attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes [1][14][17] - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range oscillation, lacking upward drivers [1][18][21] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Performance: The precious metals market experienced significant fluctuations last week. International gold prices plummeted, and domestic gold futures also declined sharply. Silver prices dropped even more severely, with all declines exceeding 10% [2] - Underlying Logic: The situation in the Middle East has deteriorated, and global central banks have adopted hawkish stances. The core factors suppressing precious metals include the rise of the US dollar and US bond yields, the outflow of ETF funds, and the concern about the Fed maintaining high interest rates. However, the four underlying logics supporting the long - term bull market of precious metals remain unchanged [2] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, gold volatility increases and is under pressure. Pay attention to the performance around 1000. Silver is under pressure, and pay attention to the performance around 16000. In the medium term, if oil prices remain high and stagflation risks increase, forcing the Fed to turn to easing, gold will regain strong upward momentum [2] Copper - Market Performance: Shanghai copper is oscillating weakly [4][5] - Underlying Logic: The global copper mine supply remains tight, and the processing fee of copper concentrates is - 65.5 US dollars/ton. The production of electrolytic copper in February decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The safe passage of the Strait of Hormuz is uncertain, which may affect the smelting of wet - process copper in Africa. The peak season is lackluster, demand is weak, and overseas inventories are accumulating more than expected [5] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, copper is oscillating weakly, and it is recommended to observe temporarily. In the long term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about copper [6] Zinc - Market Performance: Shanghai zinc is oscillating weakly [7][8] - Underlying Logic: The global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026. Some domestic mines are shut down or reduced in production seasonally, and the processing fee of domestic zinc concentrates is 1550 yuan/ton. The production of refined zinc in February decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The downstream start - up is warming up, and the inventory is being depleted [8] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, zinc is oscillating downward, and it is recommended to observe temporarily. In the long term, wait for the resonance of macro and micro factors [9] Aluminum - Market Performance: Aluminum prices rebounded after reaching a low, and alumina rebounded under pressure [10][11] - Underlying Logic: The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in 2026 is weakening. There are short - term supply disturbances in the Middle East, and new electrolytic aluminum projects in overseas Indonesia are still ramping up. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in China is increasing, and the inventory of aluminum rods is decreasing slightly. The downstream processing start - up rate is rising. The overseas bauxite freight rate has increased slightly, the alumina inventory is high, and the over - supply pattern is difficult to change fundamentally [12] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to go long on dips for Shanghai aluminum in the short term, paying attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory [13] Nickel - Market Performance: Nickel prices rebounded, and stainless steel also rebounded [14][15] - Underlying Logic: The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in 2026 is weakening. Indonesia may adjust the nickel ore production quota, but the recent news of additional quotas weakens the expectation of tightening on the nickel ore side. The domestic pure nickel inventory is increasing, and the stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, but the downstream recovery needs further verification [16] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to observe nickel and stainless steel mainly, paying attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes [17] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract LC2605 opened high, then fluctuated, and finally declined [18][19] - Underlying Logic: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, the inventory is slightly decreasing, and the price increase is difficult. The domestic mica mine mining license issue is unresolved, and the overseas lithium mine policy in Zimbabwe is not finalized, which will affect the long - term raw material supply. The new energy vehicle sales are poor, but the material sector maintains full production and sales, which will support the lithium carbonate price to a certain extent [20] - Strategy Recommendation: The price is in a wide - range oscillation between 137000 - 144000 [21]