EBSCN·2026-03-23 06:31Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Short-term copper prices are volatile, but the outlook for copper prices in 2026 remains positive due to tightening supply and improving demand [1][4] - The report highlights a significant drop in the refined copper price differential, indicating a tightening supply of scrap copper [2][54] - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in copper prices driven by supply constraints and demand recovery [4] Summary by Sections Macro Environment - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East may keep oil prices high, increasing market concerns about "stagflation" and potential interest rate hikes, which could suppress copper prices [1] - As of March 20, 2026, the SHFE copper closing price was 94,740 CNY/ton, down 5.55% from March 13, and the LME copper closing price was 11,835 USD/ton, down 7.07% [1][17] Supply and Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 8.9%, while LME copper inventory increased by 9.9% [2] - As of March 20, 2026, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 512,000 tons, down 1.3% from the previous week [2] - The refined copper price differential was reported at -417 CNY/ton, indicating a tightening supply of scrap copper [54] Demand - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a week-on-week increase in operating rates by 3.9 percentage points, reaching 70.52% [3][71] - Air conditioning production is projected to decline year-on-year by 6.1%, followed by increases of 2.9% and 4.9% in the subsequent months [3][89] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4]