长江期货养殖产业周报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pig market is currently in a state of supply exceeding demand, with short - term prices continuing to oscillate at the bottom. In the medium - to - long term, prices are expected to rise as supply tightens in the second half of the year, but the price increase depends on the extent of capacity reduction [4][48]. - The egg market is under pressure from high inventory. Although demand is gradually recovering, the overall recovery is slow, and the price increase is limited in the short term. In the long term, the supply pressure is difficult to relieve quickly, and the market should not be overly optimistic [5][76]. - The corn market has a tight supply situation that has been slightly alleviated but not fundamentally changed. In the short term, prices will remain high and volatile, while in the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand pattern will gradually become looser, and there is a risk of a phased correction [6][108]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Period - Spot End - As of March 20, the national spot price was 9.87 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 10 yuan/kg, down 0.18 yuan/kg from last week. The main pig futures contract 2605 closed at 10,220 yuan/ton, down 930 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of the 05 contract was - 220 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan/ton from last week [4][48]. 3.1.2 Supply End - In December 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, still 3.11 million away from the normal inventory regulation target of 36.5 million announced in early March. With the intensification of fattening losses and the decline of piglet profits, and the relevant department's requirement to further reduce the annual output, the industry capacity reduction will accelerate. According to piglet and feed data, the supply pressure in the first half of 2026 is still high, but the supply will decrease marginally after July [4][48]. 3.1.3 Demand End - The weekly slaughter start - up rate and slaughter volume continued to rise. However, the terminal fresh - sales demand was weak, the fresh - sales rate of slaughterhouses decreased, and the frozen - product storage ratio increased. Consumption is in the off - season, lacking obvious positive support [4][48]. 3.1.4 Cost End - The weekly prices of piglets and binary breeding sows decreased, and the losses of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets for breeding expanded. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs for 5 months remained the same as last week. The pig - grain ratio dropped to 4.08, and policy regulation is expected to stabilize prices [4][48]. 3.1.5 Weekly Summary - In March, the supply increased, the pig weight was high, and the industry capacity reduction accelerated, which increased the short - term supply. Consumption was in the off - season, and the price was under pressure. In the medium - to - long term, the price rebound was under pressure in the first half of the year, and prices were expected to rise in the second half of the year, but the price increase depends on the capacity reduction [4][48]. 3.1.6 Strategy Suggestion - In the short term, the spot price is at the bottom, and the futures price has a premium. It is advisable to try short - selling on rebounds in the near - term contracts and conduct rolling operations. For the far - term contracts, be cautious about bottom - fishing. Before the capacity is effectively reduced, breeding enterprises can conduct rolling hedging on rallies and try the reverse spread operation of buying far - term and selling near - term contracts [4][48]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Period - Spot End - As of March 20, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.27 yuan/jin, up 0.17 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.24 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from last Friday. The main egg futures contract 2605 closed at 3,409 yuan/500 kg, down 24 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 339 yuan/500 kg, up 254 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5][76]. 3.2.2 Supply End - The inventory of laying hens continued to be at a high level in the same period of history. Although the supply pressure was slightly relieved in the short term, in the long term, the supply pressure was difficult to relieve quickly due to the slow capacity reduction [5][76]. 3.2.3 Demand End - Egg demand continued to recover slightly, but the terminal family consumption was still weak, and the low - price pork still had a substitution effect, suppressing the price increase space [5][76]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary - High inventory and slow - recovering demand limit the price increase in the short term. In the long term, the supply pressure is difficult to relieve quickly, and the market should not be overly optimistic [5][76]. 3.2.5 Strategy Suggestion - In the short term, be cautious about the risk of price decline due to weak demand recovery. Do not chase high prices, and take a short - selling approach on rebounds in the near - term contracts. In the long term, closely monitor the capacity reduction rhythm and wait for a clear inflection point to make a layout [5][76]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Period - Spot End - As of March 20, the corn closing price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,395 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from last Friday. The main corn futures contract 2605 closed at 2,387 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 8 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from last Friday [6][108]. 3.3.2 Supply End - The tight supply situation has been slightly alleviated but not fundamentally changed. The farmers' grain - selling progress in the Northeast and North China has increased, but it is still slower than the same period last year. The effective supply is still tight, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has started to rise [6][108]. 3.3.3 Demand End - The deep - processing enterprises' replenishment demand has increased, while the feed enterprises' procurement is still cautious, mainly using substitutes and adopting a wait - and - see attitude [6][108]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary - The corn market is still active in trading. In the short term, prices will remain high and volatile, but in the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand pattern will gradually become looser, and there is a risk of a phased correction [6][108]. 3.3.5 Strategy Suggestion - In the short term, participate lightly with support and grasp the band opportunities. In the medium - to - long term, gradually reduce positions and take profits on rallies, and be vigilant against the phased correction risk [6][108].