铜周报：中东扰动降息预期走弱，铜价承压下跌-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper prices dropped significantly. As of March 20, it closed at 94,740 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 5.68%. The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran increased global inflation expectations. The Fed suspended interest rate cuts, and Powell's remarks strengthened the US dollar index, suppressing copper prices. Fundamentally, the shortage at the mine end persisted, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates remained at a historical low. In March, production might hit a record high. With the decline in copper prices, downstream orders and production increased, and domestic copper inventories started to decline but remained at a high level. Considering inflation concerns, recession risks, and high inventories, copper prices fell from their highs [5]. - On the supply side, the shortage of copper concentrates continued. As of March 20, domestic copper concentrate port inventories were 315,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.34%. The spot TC of copper concentrates hit a new historical low. The supply of scrap copper and anode plates was relatively abundant, and the domestic copper processing fee reached a multi - year high. The electrolytic copper output in February was 1.1424 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. It is expected that the output in March will further increase [8][27]. - On the demand side, the decline in copper prices led to an increase in the operating rate of refined copper rods, and the copper foil industry maintained a high operating rate. Last week (March 13 - 19), the operating rate of domestic main refined copper rod enterprises was 81.51%, a week - on - week increase of 8.6 percentage points. The downstream procurement sentiment improved, and new orders for refined copper rod enterprises increased significantly. The downstream cable and enameled wire industries also benefited from the decline in copper prices, and their operating rates steadily recovered. In February, the operating rates of copper foil, copper strip, and copper rod were 88.56%, 41.98%, and 22.78% respectively [8][31]. - In terms of inventory, domestic copper inventories started to decline, while LME inventories continued to accumulate. As of March 20, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 41.11 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.15%. As of March 19, the SMM copper inventory in the country's mainstream areas was 523,100 tons, a decrease of 8.85% compared to March 12, but still 176,700 tons higher than the same period last year. As of March 20, LME copper inventories were 342,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.79%, and COMEX copper inventories were 588,700 short tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50% [8][33]. - Strategy suggestion: The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran increases global inflation expectations, and the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts strengthens the US dollar index, suppressing copper prices. Fundamentally, the tight supply pattern continues, and refined copper supply maintains year - on - year growth. As the second quarter approaches, the domestic maintenance peak is coming, and supply is still supported. Downstream demand continues to recover, and the decline in copper prices stimulates downstream procurement, accelerating inventory reduction. With the approaching of the traditional consumption season, domestic inventories are likely to continue to decline. Overseas inventories continue to accumulate. The decline in domestic social inventories and the arrival of the copper consumption peak season will support copper prices, and the overall adjustment space may be limited [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategies - Last week's market review: Shanghai copper prices dropped significantly. The ongoing war increased inflation expectations, the Fed's stance strengthened the US dollar index, and the shortage at the mine end persisted. In March, production might hit a record high. With the decline in copper prices, downstream orders and production increased, and domestic copper inventories started to decline but remained at a high level [5]. - Supply - demand and inventory analysis: On the supply side, the shortage of copper concentrates continued, and the spot TC hit a new low. The supply of scrap copper and anode plates was abundant, and the domestic copper processing fee was high. The electrolytic copper output in February was seasonally low, and it is expected to increase in March. On the demand side, the decline in copper prices led to an increase in the operating rate of refined copper rods and the copper foil industry maintained a high operating rate. In terms of inventory, domestic copper inventories started to decline, while LME inventories continued to accumulate [8]. - Strategy suggestion: The war and the Fed's policy suppress copper prices, but the tight supply and recovering demand support copper prices. The decline in domestic social inventories and the arrival of the consumption peak season will limit the downward adjustment space of copper prices [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market and Positioning - Premium and discount: The contango structure appeared in the inter - month spread, and the spot discount of Shanghai copper continued to be under pressure. The decline in copper prices stimulated downstream procurement, and the spot premium first rose and then fell, and then stabilized. The LME copper inventory increased significantly, the LME 0 - 3 discount continued to widen, and the New York - London copper price difference was still negative [16]. - Domestic and foreign positions: As of March 20, the trading volume of Shanghai copper futures increased significantly, but the open interest decreased. As of March 13, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions increased significantly week - on - week. As of March 17, the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions decreased slightly week - on - week [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Supply side: The shortage of copper concentrates continued, and the spot TC hit a new low. The supply of scrap copper and anode plates was abundant, and the domestic copper processing fee was high. The electrolytic copper output in February was seasonally low, and it is expected to increase in March [27]. - Downstream operating rate: In February, the operating rates of copper foil, copper strip, and copper rod were 88.56%, 41.98%, and 22.78% respectively. The copper foil industry's operating rate was much higher than in previous years. Last week, the operating rate of domestic main refined copper rod enterprises increased significantly, and the downstream cable and enameled wire industries also benefited from the decline in copper prices [31]. - Inventory: Domestic copper inventories started to decline, while LME inventories continued to accumulate. The decline in copper prices stimulated downstream procurement, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange and social inventories decreased, but the LME inventory increased [33].