中东局势白热化，美日央行按兵不动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the trends of domestic commodities were divergent. Most industrial and agricultural products showed different trends. Driven by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international oil prices remained at a high level, leading to a strong and volatile performance in the energy and chemical sectors. Coal and agricultural products were also affected and showed a strong performance. However, the previously strong non - ferrous and precious metal sectors significantly adjusted due to concerns about stagflation [3]. - The Middle East situation has entered a white - hot stage of all - out confrontation. The US and Israel have jointly escalated military strikes and carried out high - level targeted eliminations, while Iran has countered strongly. The global energy and economic and trade order may continue to face continuous impacts [3]. - The Fed's March interest - rate meeting maintained the interest rate unchanged, with an overall hawkish tone. Powell's statement about the unknown impact of the oil - price shock highlighted the Fed's dilemma. The Fed can only strengthen its wait - and - see stance in the face of rising uncertainties and closely monitor the change in the oil - price center and the duration of high oil prices [3]. - The EU restarted the approval process of the US - EU trade agreement, releasing a signal of trans - Atlantic trade easing and calling on the US and Israel to end the war against Iran. The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate unchanged but stated that it was closely monitoring the inflation risk caused by the oil price due to the Middle East conflict and was ready to use all tools if necessary. The market expects it to raise interest rates more than twice this year [3]. - The Bank of Japan maintained the interest rate unchanged. The decision continued the tone of gradual policy normalization, and the proposal to raise interest rates by Takada reflected a significant divergence within the central bank on the progress of inflation reaching the target. Although the proposal was not passed, it signaled that there was still room for policy tightening and reserved the possibility of raising interest rates at the April monetary - policy meeting [3]. - In China, the Ministry of Finance released the 2025 fiscal - policy implementation report, and the State Council held a plenary meeting to anchor six key tasks. The Financial Regulatory Administration deployed the annual financial work, focusing on risk prevention, strong supervision, and high - quality development [3]. - The Middle East situation remains the key to the trend of commodities. On one hand, the situation in the Middle East has entered a white - hot stage, and the future development is still full of uncertainties. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has basically stagnated, leading to a continuous high level of global energy prices. The impact of rising oil prices has spread to sectors such as agriculture. On the other hand, the short - term continuous rise in oil prices has also triggered market concerns about global stagflation, causing the US dollar index to rise and dragging down the performance of precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The development of the Middle East situation and the spill - over effects of soaring oil prices need to be closely monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - Influence Factors and Main Logic - Review: Domestic commodity trends were divergent this week. Industrial and agricultural products showed different trends. International oil prices were high due to the Middle East situation, driving the energy and chemical sectors, while coal and agricultural products were also affected. Non - ferrous and precious metal sectors adjusted due to stagflation concerns [3]. - Overseas: The Middle East situation is in a white - hot stage. The Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged with a hawkish tone. The EU restarted the trade - agreement approval process. The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate but monitored inflation risks. The Bank of Japan maintained the interest rate, with internal divergence on inflation and a signal of possible future tightening [3]. - Domestic: The Ministry of Finance released the 2025 fiscal - policy report, and the State Council and the Financial Regulatory Administration deployed key tasks for economic and financial development [3]. - Commodity Views: The Middle East situation is the key to commodity trends. Rising oil prices have led to high energy prices and concerns about stagflation, affecting different commodity sectors [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - US: The Fed's March interest - rate meeting maintained the interest rate unchanged. The meeting was hawkish, and Powell was uncertain about the impact of oil - price shocks. The Fed is in a dilemma and will closely monitor oil - price changes [3]. - EU: The EU restarted the US - EU trade - agreement approval process, released a signal of trade easing, and called on the US and Israel to end the war against Iran. The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate but was vigilant about inflation risks and was ready to take action [3]. - Japan: The Bank of Japan maintained the interest rate unchanged. There was internal divergence on inflation, and there was a signal of possible future policy tightening [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - Fiscal Policy: The Ministry of Finance released the 2025 fiscal - policy implementation report, highlighting the significant effect of fiscal policies in expanding domestic demand and optimizing the tax structure. It also defined the five key points of the 2026 proactive fiscal policy [3]. - Economic and Financial Work: The State Council held a plenary meeting to anchor six key tasks, and the Financial Regulatory Administration deployed the annual financial work, focusing on risk prevention, supervision, and high - quality development [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - Industrial Data: Data on the start - up rates of the polyester industry chain and blast furnaces were presented, showing the operating conditions of related industries [27]. - Agricultural Product Data: Data on the average wholesale prices of vegetables, pork, and fruits, as well as the agricultural - product wholesale - price 200 index, were provided, reflecting the price trends of agricultural products [37][38].