生猪周报（LH）：底部震荡，静待反转-20260323

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating [1][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pig market is in a bottom - oscillating state, waiting for a reversal. The supply side has a confirmed inventory - accumulation pattern, and the spot price is in the bottom - seeking stage. The futures are expected to enter the stage of actively reducing weight and de - stocking, and the futures market may oscillate to find the bottom. The investment view is neutral, and the trading strategy is to wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage trades [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is neutral. In February, the progress of pig slaughter was slow, and the supply was postponed again. Group enterprises' slaughter returned to normal, the social side passively held back pigs, the volume of passive segmentation and warehousing increased, and the secondary fattening and speculative demand accelerated to enter the market, confirming the inventory - accumulation pattern [3] - Demand: It is bearish. The Spring Festival peak season has passed, and the off - season demand has dropped significantly. The speculative demand in January was advanced, and the negative feedback of the peak - season increment falling short of expectations emerged. The speculative demands such as secondary fattening and segmentation warehousing over - consumed the subsequent demand, and the market has a strong expectation of subsequent demand vacuum [3] - Inventory: It is bullish. The social side passively held back pigs, the volume of passive segmentation and warehousing increased, and the post - festival pig weight is at the highest level in the same period in recent years and continues to increase [3] - Basis/Spread: It is neutral. The national average spot price of outer ternary pigs is about 10,130 yuan/ton (10.13 yuan/kg in Henan). The closing price of the LH2605 contract is 11,150 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 970 yuan/ton (weakening month - on - month, and the discount range is expanding) [3] - Profit: It is neutral. Pig - raising enterprises are still in a loss state, and the pig - grain ratio is still lower than the break - even point. The spot price is running weakly, and the loss may continue [3] - Valuation: It is neutral. Currently, the price of the LH2605 contract is at a discount to the spot, the number of warehouse receipts is at the highest level in recent years, and there is still room for actively reducing weight, de - stocking, and the spot price to find the bottom [3] - Macro and Policy: It is neutral. The macro - environment is uncertain. Domestic policies to stabilize growth and expand domestic demand are still being promoted, which support the long - term pork demand to a certain extent, but short - term disturbing factors still exist [3] - Investment Viewpoint: It is neutral. The speculative demands of secondary fattening and segmentation warehousing continue, the supply - side inventory - accumulation pattern is confirmed, and the spot price enters the bottom - seeking stage. The futures are expected to enter the stage of actively reducing weight and de - stocking, and the futures market may oscillate to find the bottom [3] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, wait and see; for arbitrage trading, wait and see. Pay attention to the secondary fattening demand and feed prices [3] 2. Pig Fundamental Data - Production Efficiency - 1: Since 2025, the average number of healthy piglets per litter has been basically stable in the range of 11 - 11.36, with a slight upward fluctuation as a whole. The farrowing - house survival rate has also shown a trend of "steady and slightly rising", rising from 91.03% at the beginning of 2025 to a stage high of 92.91% in February 2026 [14] - Production Efficiency - 2: The national survival rate of fattening pigs shows the characteristic of "seasonal fluctuation". December - February each year is the relatively low point of the annual survival rate, and then it gradually recovers, reaching the peak in the middle of the year and then falling back. Since 2025, the indicator has always remained at a relatively high level. The sample commercial pig slaughter volume also shows a trend of "steady and rising". In 2025, the slaughter volume continued to increase, from 16.15 million at the beginning of the year to a stage high of about 17.84 million at the end of the year. Although the slaughter volume decreased seasonally in December, it continued to increase after entering 2026 and is at the highest level in the same period in recent years [18] 3. Pig Capital - Side Data - Basis of Different Contracts: The report presents the basis data of 05, 09, and 01 contracts from 2022 - 2027 [46][47][48] - Futures Monthly Spread: It shows the 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 monthly spreads from 2022 - 2026 [50][51][52]