铝产业链周报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The development of the Middle East situation is still bullish for aluminum. In the short term, the price may continue to decline. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to stabilize before entering the market to place long orders and pay attention to the development of the situation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly View - The price of domestic bauxite is temporarily stable, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore increased by $0.6 per dry ton week - on - week to $63.6 per dry ton. The export restriction measures of Guinea's bauxite are expected to be mild and will be officially introduced from the end of March to early April. The operating capacity of alumina decreased by 200,000 tons week - on - week to 93.7 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 24,000 tons week - on - week to 5.369 million tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 30,000 tons week - on - week to 44.756 million tons. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually affect the electrolytic aluminum production in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about aluminum plant production cuts. The domestic downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 1% week - on - week to 62.9%. The aluminum ingot social inventory is still waiting for an inflection point. The operating rate of recycled cast aluminum alloy enterprises has increased seasonally. The Fed's hawkish signals have put pressure on non - ferrous metals [3]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve, the US dollar index, the US Treasury 10 - year yield, the US Treasury real 10 - year yield, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar [5]. 3.3. Bauxite - The price of domestic bauxite is temporarily stable, but it is difficult to maintain in the long term due to the large difference in the real - time theoretical cost between domestic and imported ores used by alumina plants. Mines in Shanxi, Henan and other places are gradually resuming production, but fundamental problems such as mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental supervision are difficult to solve in the short term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore increased by $0.6 per dry ton week - on - week to $63.6 per dry ton, driven by the sharp rise in freight and the expected export restrictions [8]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with no change week - on - week, the operating capacity was 93.9 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons week - on - week, and the operating rate was 81.9%. The domestic spot weighted price was 2,772.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 71.9 yuan/ton week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.345 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons week - on - week. The operation of alumina enterprises is relatively stable, and the industry profit has been repaired. An alumina plant in Hebei is affected by policies, and a new project in Guangxi is about to start production [11]. 3.5. Important High - Frequency Data of Alumina - The report presents data on the basis, alumina port inventory, north - south price difference, and transportation volume of alumina [13][14][15][16]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.442 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week; the operating capacity was 44.756 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons week - on - week. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will affect the production of electrolytic aluminum in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about production cuts. There are new investment and restart projects at home and abroad, and some overseas aluminum plants have production adjustment plans [20]. 3.7. Important High - Frequency Data of Electrolytic Aluminum - The report presents data on the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, the forward curve of Shanghai aluminum, the price of thermal coal, and the import profit of aluminum [22]. 3.8. Inventory - The report presents data on the social inventory of aluminum rods, the social inventory of aluminum ingots, the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures, and the LME aluminum inventory [24][25][26][27]. 3.9. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 0.7% week - on - week to 59.5%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum enterprises has increased, but the increase is still mild. Downstream die - casting enterprises have low purchasing enthusiasm [30]. 3.10. Important High - Frequency Data of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The report presents data on the price of profile aluminum, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots [32][33][34][35]. 3.11. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week to 62.9%. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises increased by 3.2% week - on - week to 55%, with different performances in industrial and construction profiles. The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises remained stable at 70% week - on - week, with different trends in different orders [38][42]. 3.12. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises remained stable at 65% week - on - week, with good order expectations in April but cautious purchasing due to high aluminum prices. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 1.2% week - on - week to 54.2%, with increased orders but some suppression of purchasing due to high aluminum prices [47].