Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a structural long-term shortage of indium due to supply constraints and increasing demand from emerging sectors such as photovoltaic technology and AI-driven communication [4][6][7] - The supply of indium is heavily reliant on the by-products of zinc and tin smelting, leading to a near-zero supply elasticity [4] - The demand for indium is expected to surge, particularly from the photovoltaic heterojunction (HJT) technology and AI communication sectors, which are projected to outpace global supply [6][7] Supply Side Summary - Indium supply is constrained by the lack of independent economic deposits and is primarily sourced from the recovery of by-products from zinc and tin [4] - China's dominance in global indium resources is challenged by environmental regulations and the slow expansion of zinc mining capacity, resulting in a structural decline in primary indium production [4] - Recent policies have led to a significant reduction in tradable inventories, with current levels only sufficient for about one month of consumption [4] Demand Side Summary - Traditional demand from display panels remains stable, while explosive growth is anticipated from new technologies [5][6] - The HJT technology is expected to significantly increase indium consumption, potentially surpassing global annual supply [6] - The AI revolution is driving demand for indium phosphide (InP) in high-speed communication, with major companies already facing long-term order backlogs [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the recent decline in indium prices is a technical correction following a period of continuous increase [7] - Long-term price trends are expected to rise due to the dual demand drivers of HJT technology and AI communication [7] - Companies with stable resource access and advanced purification technologies, such as Tin Industry Co., Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, and others, are recommended for investment [7]
价短期回调，不改长期短缺格局
Jianghai Securities·2026-03-23 07:13