特朗普访华前瞻：建制派的反扑与特朗普的窘境

Group 1 - The report highlights that Trump's policy control during his second term is significantly weaker than previously expected, facing systemic constraints from the judiciary and establishment forces, particularly regarding tariffs and the Federal Reserve [4][11][12] - The macroeconomic environment in the U.S. is showing signs of "stagflation," with non-farm payroll data rebounding but lacking authenticity due to structural industry disparities, while inflation remains sticky with PCE rising to high levels [4][12][54] - Fiscal sustainability is a deeper constraint for Trump, as attempts to implement the "Great America Act" for revenue generation and spending cuts have faced legal challenges and delays, leading to ongoing fiscal pressure [4][54][62] Group 2 - The report discusses the shift in U.S.-China relations from "maximum pressure" to "phased repair," suggesting that Trump's upcoming visit to China may focus on pragmatic outcomes like extending tariff pauses and increasing purchases [4][12] - If Trump loses power in the midterm elections, the independence of the Federal Reserve may strengthen, leading to a reduced probability of significant interest rate cuts, which could affect the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury bonds [4][12][54] - The report identifies potential beneficiaries in the A-share market related to external demand and manufacturing sectors if a phased agreement is reached during Trump's visit to China [4][12][54]