中国天然气市场介绍（一）供需概览

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - China's natural gas supply is mainly supported by domestic production and pipeline imports, with LNG as a supplement. In 2025, domestic production accounted for over 60% of total supply, pipeline imports rose to 18.77%, and LNG imports fell to 20.68% [1][3][4] - Gas demand growth has slowed. In 2025, industrial and urban gas LNG consumption declined, while refueling station demand rose 10%. In 2026, demand growth will likely be driven by the power and transportation sectors, as industrial and traditional urban demand remains weak [2][4] - LNG imports are expected to recover in 2026. Domestic production will rise steadily and pipeline imports will see no significant growth. With domestic gas consumption projected to grow moderately, LNG imports will fill the gap, with growth dependent on demand realization [3][4][71] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Supply: Domestic Production and Pipeline Imports as the Foundation, LNG Imports as a Supplement Domestic Production: Production Boost and Storage Building Underpin the Steady Growth of Domestic Supply - China's natural gas output has maintained a steady rise in recent years, concentrated mainly in the Southwest, Northwest and North China. In the first 11 months of 2025, cumulative domestic natural gas output rose by 6.4% year - on - year [11][75] - Corporate capital expenditure remains at a high level. The capital expenditure on exploration and production by the Big Three National Oil Companies has basically stayed at 400 billion yuan per year since 2022. China's natural gas output is expected to reach 300 billion cubic meters by 2030 [15][79] Pipeline Gas Imports: Accelerated Growth in the Past Two Years, Growth Rate Likely to Slow in the Future - Imports of pipeline natural gas have risen year after year, concentrated primarily in Russia and Turkmenistan. In the first 11 months of 2025, cumulative imports reached 54.46 million tonnes, a year - on - year increase of 7.6% [20][83] - The average import price is expected to decline further alongside oil prices, yet the simulative effect on import volumes is likely to be limited. Import volumes depend more on pipeline expansion and contract execution [24][86] LNG Imports: Diversified Channels, Volatile Import Volumes - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's cumulative LNG imports reached 60.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. Price declines boosted imports in the second half [27][89] - International oil prices lead LNG average import prices by approximately six months, with short - term fluctuations driven by JKM gas prices [27][92] - 2026 remains a peak year for the commissioning of global LNG export capacity. A further drop in costs is expected to spur a recovery in China's LNG imports, yet the actual change in import volumes will still depend on domestic demand and fluctuations in supply from other channels [32][97] Supply Structure: Strong Cost Advantages for Domestic Production and Pipeline Imports, with LNG Imports as a Supplement - Domestic natural gas production accounts for nearly 60% of China's total supply, and pipeline gas imports have registered rapid growth in recent years. In 2025, the share of domestic output in total supply exceeded 60%, the proportion of pipeline gas imports climbed to 18.77%, while that of LNG imports fell to 20.68% [33][98] - Domestic natural gas and imported pipeline gas hold a distinct cost advantage over LNG. China's natural gas supply structure is built on domestic production and pipeline gas imports, with LNG imports serving as a supplement [34][99] Demand: Gradually Slowing Growth, with Transportation and Power Sectors as the Major Growth Drivers Urban Gas: Slowing Growth in Traditional Demand, with Transportation Demand Emerging as a New Growth Driver - Urbanization rate growth has driven the rise in China's urban gas consumption. Since 2023, the growth in urban gas consumption has been driven primarily by the transportation sector [43][44][106] - LNG heavy - duty truck sales have passed their explosive growth phase, and competition with new energy heavy - duty trucks is likely to intensify in the future [49][110] Power Sector: Rising Installed Capacity Drives Consumption Growth, While Higher Capacity Prices May Curb Utilization Hours - Installed gas - fired power capacity has grown at an accelerated pace during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, with the share of natural gas consumption in the power sector edging up slightly. As of November 2025, installed gas - fired power capacity exceeded 160 GW [52][112] - Gas - fired power generation registered a robust year - on - year growth in 2025, with the major increment concentrated in South China. The peaking role of gas - fired power units will be further strengthened [57][116] Industrial Sector: Coal - to - Gas Switch Drives Fuel Demand Growth, While Chemical Demand Hits a Bottleneck - Natural gas consumption for industrial fuel has maintained steady growth, whereas consumption in the chemical industry has contracted in recent years. Growth in industrial fuel demand may face certain pressure in the short term [59][64][120] - Natural gas demand in the chemical industry may see a marginal recovery in the follow - up period as international natural gas prices decline further [68][126] China's Natural Gas Supply and Demand to Remain Loose in 2026, with LNG Imports Set for a Recovered Growth - On the demand side, growth in industrial and traditional urban gas demand is hitting a bottleneck. Transportation and power sector demand have become the major growth drivers, but their current volume remains relatively small. China's natural gas consumption is likely to remain in a slow - growth trajectory, with the year - on - year growth rate expected to stay within 5% [71][131] - On the supply side, domestic production is projected to continue rising, yet pipeline gas imports may see no notable year - on - year increase in 2026. LNG imports are highly likely to register a recovery in 2026, with the actual growth magnitude dependent on the fulfillment of demand [71][131] - In the medium to long term, China's domestic natural gas production is expected to maintain a steady upward trend, while demand growth slows year by year. Growth in natural gas imports is likely to decelerate in tandem, with pipeline gas imports taking priority over LNG [72][131]