碳酸锂日报：宏观冲击尚未退散，碳酸锂仍有高波动下行风险-20260323

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern in the next one to two weeks, as the supply is supported by the export ban in Zimbabwe and upstream reluctance to sell, but the demand is weak due to the decline in new energy vehicle sales and cautious downstream procurement, and the inventory reduction provides limited support while macro - geopolitical risks suppress market sentiment [3][57] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On March 20, 2026, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose slightly to 143,860 yuan/ton, a 0.88% increase from the previous day, continuing the recent volatile trend. The basis weakened significantly to 6,140 yuan/ton, narrowing by 7,260 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 54.18% [1][53] - Position and Trading Volume: The position volume shrank by 2.18% to 276,578 lots, a decrease of 6,167 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume shrank by 10.5% to 258,276 lots, a decrease of 30,295 lots from the previous day, indicating a significant decline in trading activity [1][54] 1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: On March 20, 2026, the price of spodumene concentrate rose slightly to 16,235 yuan/ton, a 0.12% increase from the previous day, while the price of lepidolite concentrate dropped significantly by 6.01% to 8,600 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 73.46%. The export ban on lithium mines in Zimbabwe has not been lifted, and the import volume of spodumene fluctuated from January to February, increasing the reluctance of upstream lithium salt plants to sell and reducing the willingness to sell single orders, constraining the supply [2][55] - Demand Side: The prices of downstream cathode materials generally declined. On March 20, 2026, the price of power ternary materials dropped by 0.55% to 182,250 yuan/ton, and the price of power lithium iron phosphate dropped by 1.57% to 53,290 yuan/ton. The cell prices were basically stable, with only the square lithium iron phosphate cell rising slightly by 1.08%. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, in the first half of March, the retail sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 28% year - on - year, and the wholesale sales decreased by 19% year - on - year. The demand was weak, and the procurement rhythm of downstream material plants slowed down, with only a few low - inventory enterprises maintaining rigid demand replenishment [2][55] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly by 0.09% to 98,873 physical tons, a decrease of 86 tons from the previous week, continuing the inventory reduction trend. The overall inventory pressure in the market was relieved, and the upstream reluctance to sell and the downstream inventory preparation until early April led to a shortage of circulating goods [2][56] 1.3 Price Trend Judgment - In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern. The supply side is supported by the Zimbabwe export ban and upstream reluctance to sell, but the cost drive is weakened by the decline in lepidolite price and import fluctuations. The demand side remains weak due to the decline in new energy vehicle sales and cautious downstream procurement, and the macro - geopolitical risks (such as the Middle East situation) suppress market sentiment. The slight inventory reduction provides limited support, but there is a lack of strong unilateral drive. Overall, the price will fluctuate within the current range, with the upside limited by insufficient demand and the downside buffered by supply constraints [3][57] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Various price data of lithium - related products on March 20, 2026, are provided, including the main contract of lithium carbonate, basis, position, trading volume, battery - grade lithium carbonate market price, spodumene concentrate market price, lepidolite concentrate market price, lithium hexafluorophosphate, power ternary materials, power lithium iron phosphate, etc., along with their price changes and rates compared with the previous day or previous week [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.1 Spot Market Quotation - On March 20, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot index continued to decline. The futures market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The main contract once reached 148,000 yuan/ton after the opening, and the highest in the noon reached over 150,000 yuan/ton, then fell under pressure and closed at around 144,000 yuan/ton. As of the close, the position volume decreased by about 6,200 lots compared with the previous trading day. In the spot market, after the downstream material plants' concentrated replenishment the previous day, the procurement rhythm slowed down significantly today. Some enterprises' raw material inventories have been prepared until early April, and only a few low - inventory enterprises maintained rigid demand and purchased at low prices. Upstream lithium salt plants were less willing to sell single orders due to the continuous decline in prices, and some manufacturers still insisted on quotes above 160,000 yuan/ton. The overall trading activity in the market decreased compared with the previous trading day. At the macro level, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East increased and the crude oil price fluctuated, leading to a decline in market risk preference and overall pressure on the industrial metal sector. On the supply side, the export ban on lithium mines in Zimbabwe has not been lifted, providing bottom - support for the price. In general, in the short term, the lithium carbonate price may maintain a wide - range volatile pattern under the game between bearish macro sentiment and supply - side constraints [6] 3.2 Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the data from the Passenger Car Association on March 18, from March 1 - 15, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 285,000 units, a 28% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period in March last year, and a 36% increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 1.345 million units, a 26% year - on - year decrease. From March 1 - 15, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers were 325,000 units, a 19% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period in March last year, and a 47% increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale sales this year were 1.914 million units, a 10% year - on - year decrease [7] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - Multiple data charts are provided, including the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices [8][10][12][14][16][18][20][21]