20260321棉系周报：内外价差走缩修复下方仍有刚需支撑-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the cotton industry is neutral - with a slight bullish bias [3] 2. Report's Core View - The cotton market is influenced by multiple factors including macro - economic conditions, supply, demand, and inventory. Although there are some bearish factors such as the macro - economic recession expectation and import competition, the overall demand and inventory situation still support the cotton price in the medium - term. The release of subsidy policies in late March and early April will significantly impact the market's speculation on future supply - demand patterns [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Factors 3.1.1 International Macro - economy - The Federal Reserve keeps the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%. The market shifts from trading rate - cuts to trading economic recession due to the impact from the crude oil market. China and the US have economic and trade consultations in Paris, forming some new consensuses and agreeing to maintain further consultations [3] 3.1.2 Domestic Macro - economy - There is no specific macro - economic information provided other than the expectation of the new cotton subsidy policy [3] 3.2 Supply Factors 3.2.1 International Supply - Brazil's cotton production in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 3.7951 million tons, a 6.9% year - on - year decrease. Pakistan's cotton yarn export volume in February 2026 is about 30,900 tons, a 1.5% month - on - month increase and a 57% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export volume from January to February is 61,300 tons [3] 3.2.2 Domestic Supply - The market is concerned about the new cotton target price subsidy policy. It is speculated that the production target of 36 million mu may be achieved in 2 - 3 years, and the direct subsidy price may be slightly reduced from 18,600 yuan/ton to 18,300 yuan/ton. The estimated domestic cotton production in the 26/27 season is about 7.24 - 7.25 million tons, with an estimated year - on - year decrease of about 8%. The 300,000 - ton sliding - duty quota for processing trade issued by the National Development and Reform Commission may relieve the supply - demand situation in the short - term but is unlikely to change the long - term supply - demand expectation. As of March 21, the national commercial cotton inventory is 5.0399 million tons, showing a seasonal decline [3][25][28] 3.3 Inventory Factors - The domestic commercial cotton inventory shows a seasonal decline, but the decline in Xinjiang slows down, resulting in a relatively stable year - on - year change. The terminal clothing inventory of state - owned enterprises is at a low level, and the inventory of finished products is being transferred from the yarn to the cloth segment, which supports the demand. The current inventory of grey fabrics is not high and may continue to support the market [3] 3.4 Demand Factors 3.4.1 International Demand - In January 2026, the US's total imports of textiles and clothing from China are about $1.078 billion, a 4.7% month - on - month increase and a 55.9% year - on - year decrease. The total imports of cotton textiles and clothing from China are about $288 million, a 13% month - on - month increase and a 56.6% year - on - year decrease. Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume in February 2026 is $1.311 billion, a 24.6% month - on - month decrease and a 7.2% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative export volume from January to February is $3.05 billion [3] 3.4.2 Domestic Demand - The downstream enterprises' operating rates are higher than the same period last year. The spinning profit is further repaired. However, the import of cotton yarn with high cost - performance squeezes the domestic cotton market. The overseas restocking has not started yet. The domestic retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles in January - February 2026 show a year - on - year growth of 4.5%. The textile and clothing export volume in January - February is $50.45 billion, a 17.6% year - on - year increase [3][44][47] 3.5 Price and Market Trends 3.5.1 US Cotton - Due to the international situation and the improvement of the domestic - foreign cotton price difference, as well as the good fundamentals in the short - term, the US cotton is expected to maintain a strong trend. If the macro - economic trading expectation improves, it may reach 70 cents per pound [3] 3.5.2 Zhengzhou Cotton - This week, the center of Zhengzhou cotton has declined, but it shows strong support at key positions. The market is still in a slightly bullish trend. The good start of the downstream industry and the transfer of finished product inventory support the cotton price. However, the upward breakthrough still depends on the supply - side policies. After the continuous rise of the futures price, the risk has increased [3] 3.6 USDA Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The overall situation in the March USDA global supply - demand balance sheet is slightly bearish. Globally, the production is increased by 246,000 tons to 2.634 million tons, the consumption is decreased by 139,000 tons to 1.7216 million tons, and the global inventory - to - consumption ratio is increased by 1.15% to 64.4%. In China, the production in 2025/26 is increased by 109,000 tons to 772,800 tons, the consumption is increased by 109,000 tons to 859,900 tons, and the monthly inventory - to - consumption ratio is decreased by 1.18% to 92.05% [4]