贵金属周报：降息预期降温，金银大幅调整-20260323

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For gold and silver, due to the ongoing Middle - East conflict, high oil prices lead to higher inflation expectations in the US and economic suppression. The Fed maintained rates in March, and the market's expectation of rate cuts within the year is less than once. The US dollar index is strong, so gold and silver may continue to be under pressure and adjust. As the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts changes, gold and silver may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the return of the gold - silver ratio [4]. - For platinum and palladium, short - term fundamental data is limited. In the medium term, platinum is in a tight - balance situation, while palladium is in a surplus situation. Also, the guidance of the gold price needs to be considered in the medium term. This week, they may follow the weak trend of the gold price, and the platinum - palladium ratio may continue to strengthen [4]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - Gold: London gold dropped from $5044.6/oz to $4562.55/oz, a decrease of $482; COMEX gold dropped from $5023.1/oz to $4492/oz, a decrease of $531. The inventory of COMEX gold decreased by 497,287 ounces, and the COMEX gold warehouse receipt decreased by 176,808 ounces. The gold - silver ratio of COMEX increased from 62.21 to 67.45 [8]. - Silver: London silver dropped from $83.695/oz to $72.37/oz, a decrease of $11; COMEX silver dropped from $80.7125/oz to $67.85/oz, a decrease of $13. The inventory of COMEX silver decreased by 9,027,954 ounces, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipt increased by 247,197 ounces [8]. - Platinum: London platinum dropped from $2077/oz to $1978/oz, a decrease of $99; NYMEX platinum dropped from $2024.5/oz to $1920.1/oz, a decrease of $104. The NYMEX platinum inventory decreased by 3,167 ounces, and the NYMEX platinum warehouse receipt decreased by 5,012 ounces. The NYMEX platinum - palladium ratio increased from 1.30 to 1.36 [8]. - Palladium: London palladium dropped from $1612/oz to $1434/oz, a decrease of $178; NYMEX palladium dropped from $1561/oz to $1414.5/oz, a decrease of $147. The NYMEX palladium inventory increased by 47,658 ounces, and the NYMEX palladium warehouse receipt increased by 47,658 ounces [8]. 02 Market Analysis - Market News: - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% in March, and the market's expectation of rate cuts within 2026 decreased to less than once. The expected first rate - cut time was postponed to July 2027 [11]. - Spot gold fell below $4500/oz, and the gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 9.62% in a week, the largest weekly decline in 15 years. The market trading theme has shifted from "geopolitical hedging" to "inflation expectation and monetary policy game" [11]. - The volatility premium of precious metals is negative, indicating that the market expects price fluctuations to converge [11]. - South Africa's platinum - group metal production has declined for four consecutive years, and the global market may face a structural shortage [12]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading rules for platinum and palladium futures contracts, including the minimum order quantity, daily price limit, and margin standard [12]. - The platinum leasing market activity declined in 2025 due to high financing costs, reducing market liquidity [12].