Yin He Zheng Quan·2026-03-23 08:03Core Insights - The global asset pricing logic is changing under the backdrop of high oil prices, high inflation, and high interest rates, with U.S. Treasury yields becoming more sensitive to inflation and supply factors [2] - The long-term interest rate is facing upward pressure, while gold retains its allocation value in an inflationary and uncertain environment [2] - The U.S. dollar is supported by safe-haven demand in the short term but faces adjustment pressure in the medium term due to fiscal constraints and reserve diversification [2] - The attractiveness of RMB assets is expected to increase as China distances itself from conflict-prone areas and maintains policy space [2] - A-shares are influenced by external disturbances but still present structural opportunities in sectors like power equipment and high-end manufacturing [2] - Hong Kong stocks are more affected by foreign capital flows and exhibit higher volatility, but their attractiveness for medium to long-term capital is increasing due to low valuations [2] Section Summaries 1. U.S.-Iran Conflict Dynamics - The U.S.-Iran conflict has escalated into a prolonged confrontation, impacting global energy supply and prices, with Brent crude oil prices rising significantly [6][7] - The conflict has led to increased military spending by the U.S., with costs exceeding $10 billion related to Iran, contributing to the rapid expansion of U.S. federal debt [15] 2. U.S. Federal Reserve's Hawkish Shift Amid High Energy Prices - The Federal Reserve has signaled a significant reduction in rate cut expectations, with most officials supporting only one rate cut in 2026 [8][12] - Inflation forecasts have been revised upward, with the core PCE inflation expected to rise to 4.0% [8][12] 3. U.S. Treasury Debt Outlook - U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, with rapid growth driven by persistent fiscal deficits and military spending related to geopolitical tensions [15][19] - Interest payments on the debt are projected to exceed $1 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [19] 4. Asset Class Changes Under Re-Inflation Narrative - The core logic of global asset pricing is shifting towards a framework of multiple constraints, including high energy costs and inflation persistence [32] - The traditional safe-haven role of U.S. Treasuries is weakening as inflation and supply factors dominate market dynamics [34] - Gold is expected to benefit from its dual role as a hedge against inflation and a currency alternative [34] 5. Structural Changes in Asset Pricing - The current asset pricing system is undergoing a fundamental reconfiguration, with energy costs, fiscal constraints, and credit stability becoming central [41] - Assets with supply security and credit stability characteristics, such as gold and energy, are likely to gain new premium sources [41]