长江期货贵金属周报:流动性担忧发酵，价格延续回调-20260323

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's March FOMC meeting kept interest rates unchanged, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices continued to rise, and the market expected no rate cuts this year, leading to a correction in precious metal prices. The mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to move up, and the prices of platinum and palladium are expected to have support below but still face short - term adjustment pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and trade cautiously. [7][10][12] Group 3: Summary by Directory 01. Market Review - Due to the Fed's 3 - month interest rate hold, Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, rising crude oil prices and the market's expectation of no rate cuts this year, the gold price corrected. As of last Friday, the price of US gold was reported at $4492 per ounce, down 10.6% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4700, and the lower support level is $4300 [7] - The silver price also corrected under the same factors, with a weekly decline of 15.9% as of last Friday. It was reported at $67.8 per ounce, with a lower support level of $63 and an upper resistance level of $76 [10] 02. Weekly Viewpoints - The Fed's 3 - month interest rate hold, Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, rising crude oil prices and the market's expectation of no rate cuts this year led to a correction in precious metal prices. The mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to move up. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain relatively high, and their prices are expected to have support below but face short - term adjustment pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and trade cautiously [12][14] 03. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data and trends on the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rates, US Treasury yields, inflation expectations, yield spreads, and the Fed's balance - sheet size [16][18][20] 04. Important Economic Data of the Week - The US February PPI annual rate was 3.4%, higher than the expected 2.9% and the previous value of 2.9% [26] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending March 14 was 205,000, lower than the expected 215,000 and the previous value of 213,000 [26] 05. Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The Fed's FOMC kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% - 3.75% in March, and the latest dot - plot shows one expected rate cut this year, while the market previously expected two [27] - The US February PPI rose 0.7% month - on - month, higher than the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.5%, and the year - on - year increase reached 3.4%, a one - year high [27] 06. Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 15,467.36 kg to 997,000.15 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory increased by 1,428 kg to 106,845 kg [14][29] - The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 280,800.97 kg to 10,347,986.85 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory increased by 35,929 kg to 362,495 kg [14][29] 07. Fund Holdings - As of March 17, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in gold was 163,351 contracts, a decrease of 2,328 contracts from last week [14][33] - The CFTC speculative fund net long position in silver was 21,036 contracts, a decrease of 2,700 contracts from last week [14][33] 08. Key Points to Watch This Week - On Tuesday, March 24, at 21:45, the preliminary value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI for March will be released [35] - On Thursday, March 26, at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending March 21 will be released [35]