供应预期增加，价格延续震荡：碳酸锂周报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate. The resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo Mine is highly anticipated, and the import volume of lithium salts from South America is expected to increase significantly. The export ban in Zimbabwe and the mining permit risks in Yichun continue to cause supply disturbances, while the production of lithium from ore is increasing due to profit restoration, leading to an upward shift in the cost center [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View Supply Situation - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, last week's lithium carbonate output increased by 645 tons week - on - week to 24,365 tons, and the output in February decreased by 17.6% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo Mine has not resumed production, Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced a suspension of all exports of raw ore and lithium concentrate, and there are still disturbances in Yichun's mining permits. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and there is extremely limited room for further cost reduction. From January to February 2026, the total import volume of spodumene in China was approximately 1.39 million tons. In February, China imported 26,427 tons of lithium carbonate, a 2% decrease month - on - month and a 114% increase year - on - year. The CIF price of imported spodumene concentrate remained unchanged week - on - week, and the weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate smelting rose to about 57% [4]. Demand Situation - In March, the overall production schedule increased month - on - month, and the industry chain is in a pattern of strong supply and demand. In February, the combined production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a 15.7% decrease month - on - month and a 41.3% increase year - on - year. The combined export of power and energy - storage batteries was 23.9 GWh, a 0.9% decrease month - on - month and a 13.2% increase year - on - year. The sales volume of power and energy - storage batteries was 113.2 GWh, a 23.9% decrease month - on - month and a 25.7% increase year - on - year. Policy - side new energy vehicle purchase tax is also expected to continue to support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [5]. Inventory Situation - This week, lithium carbonate inventory showed a destocking state. Factory inventory increased by 635 tons, market inventory increased by 1,597 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 2,085 tons [5]. Strategy Suggestions - From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo Mine is still shut down, and there are still risks in Yichun's mining permits. In February, China's domestic lithium carbonate output decreased by 17.6% month - on - month, the import of lithium concentrate was 558,000 tons, a 33% decrease month - on - month, and the total import of lithium carbonate was approximately 26,000 tons, a 1.6% decrease month - on - month and a 114% increase year - on - year. The downstream demand for export is strong, and it is expected that the subsequent import of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply. From the demand side, the industry chain is in a pattern of strong supply and demand. The resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo Mine is highly anticipated, and the import volume of lithium salts is expected to increase significantly. The export ban in Zimbabwe and the mining permit risks in Yichun continue to exist, supply disturbances persist, lithium production from ore continues to increase under the background of profit restoration, and the cost center moves up. The expectation of the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo Mine rises, the shipment of lithium salts from South America increases, inventory continues to decline, and attention should be paid to the progress of Zimbabwe's export ban and mining - end disturbances in Yichun [6]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - The document provides multiple data graphs, including the spot tax - inclusive average price of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, monthly factory inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of imported lithium concentrate, production of power and other batteries, production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials in February 2026, difference between domestic power battery production and loading volume, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate, average production cost of lithium carbonate, monthly production of ternary materials, import volume of spodumene, average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate, import volume of lithium carbonate, and market price of ternary material 8 - series NCA type [8][9][11] etc.