原周报（LG）：原木期现分化，关注“强预期”落地情况-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Some spot prices of logs in Shandong and Taicang decreased this week. The delivery cost of the cheapest deliverable log in Shandong for the 05 contract is around 815 yuan/m³, and the current futures price above 820 yuan/m³ has priced in the expected increase in April and May to some extent. If the war between the US and Iran continues to drive up oil prices, the "strong expectation" logic will be gradually confirmed. The log futures showed a significant increase in positions and broke through the previous high this week, and the market tends to the "strong expectation" logic. Considering the above, one can consider going long with strict stop - loss [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Some spot prices of logs in Shandong and Taicang decreased. The current futures price has priced in the expected increase in April and May. If the US - Iran war drives up oil prices, the "strong expectation" logic will be confirmed. The futures market is more inclined to the "strong expectation" logic and it's hard to falsify it before the 05 contract delivery. It's advisable to consider going long with strict stop - loss [3]. - Log futures showed significant increase in positions. As of March 20, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 17,765 lots, a 39.2% increase from last week; the position of the main contract was 12,485 lots, a 52% week - on - week increase [11]. - Some specifications of log spot prices decreased. As of March 19, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large A radiata pine were 700/770/860 yuan/m³; 5.9 - meter small/medium/large A were 730/800/950 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, 3.9 - meter small/medium/large A were 730/780/810 yuan/m³; 5.9 - meter small/medium/large A were 760/800/870 yuan/m³ [15]. 3.2 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Log Import Volume - In December 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs was about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a 20.82% month - on - month decrease and a 22.45% year - on - year decrease. In 2025, the total import volume was about 23.9187 million cubic meters, an 8.41% year - on - year decrease. - In December 2025, China imported about 1.3048 million cubic meters of coniferous logs from New Zealand, a 27.01% month - on - month decrease and a 13.02% year - on - year decrease. In 2025, the total import volume from New Zealand was about 18.1002 million cubic meters, a 1.51% year - on - year increase [21]. 3.2.2 New Zealand Log Shipment and Dispatch Volume - From March 7 - 13, 2026, 12 ships with 450,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a 1 - ship and 10,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous week. Among them, 9 ships with 340,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a 0 - ship and 10,000 - cubic - meter decrease. - In the past four weeks, 49 ships with 1.87 million cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a 21 - ship and 820,000 - cubic - meter increase compared with the same period last month. Among them, 36 ships with 1.35 million cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a 13 - ship and 500,000 - cubic - meter increase compared with the same period last month [25]. 3.2.3 Trade Profit - As of March 9, 2026, the CFR quotation range of New Zealand radiata pine logs in March was 117 - 122 US dollars/JAS cubic meters, a 5 - dollar increase from last month, and the quotation had relatively good transaction conditions [32]. 3.2.4 Domestic Log Inventory - As of March 6, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.13 million cubic meters, a 4.68% week - on - week increase; radiata pine inventory was 2.51 million cubic meters, a 3.72% week - on - week increase; North American timber inventory was 260,000 cubic meters, an 8.33% week - on - week increase; spruce/fir inventory was 160,000 cubic meters, a 10,000 - cubic - meter increase from last week. The total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1,955,000 cubic meters, a 1.82% increase from last week; in Jiangsu ports, it was 910,800 cubic meters, a 12.25% increase from last week [35]. 3.2.5 Domestic Port Log Out - bound Volume - From March 2 - 8, the average daily out - bound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 33,300 cubic meters, a 455% increase from last week. Among them, the average daily out - bound volume in Shandong ports was 23,800 cubic meters, a 349.06% increase from last week; in Jiangsu ports, it was 7,000 cubic meters [38]. 3.2.6 Wood Square Price and Processing Profit - As of March 15, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1,240 yuan/m³, unchanged from last week; in Jiangsu, it was 1,310 yuan/m³, unchanged from last week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 44.4 yuan/m³, unchanged from last week; in Jiangsu, it was - 5 yuan/m³, unchanged from last week [41]. 3.2.7 Downstream Situation - As of March 13, 2025, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.9, a 0.5% month - on - month decrease; the Baltic Dry Index was 2,028, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease [45].