纸浆周报：纸浆期货仍受“弱现实”逻辑主导-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, pulp futures fluctuated sharply, with significant position - building and price drops from Monday to Wednesday, breaking through 5000 yuan/ton, and then rebounding to around 5200 yuan/ton after position - reduction. The main reason is that the Shanghai Pulp Conference led the market to reach a consensus on the "weak reality" logic [3]. - During the pulp conference, pulp mills and pulp traders negotiated prices. The price of softwood pulp is expected to decline, while hardwood pulp remains relatively strong. The pattern of "weak softwood, strong hardwood" that has persisted since the beginning of the year continues [3]. - The impact of the US - Iran war on pulp's external quotations is currently limited, only supporting the price - holding requirements of Nordic pulp mills [3]. - In terms of inventory, both softwood and hardwood pulp saw a slight reduction this week, mainly in southern ports, while Qingdao Port still accumulated inventory [3]. - There was some improvement in demand this week. After the sharp decline in pulp futures, both traders and cash - futures traders were active in selling, reflecting the paper mills' bottom - fishing psychology. Hardwood pulp was particularly easy to sell below 4500 yuan/ton. However, the prices of the four major wood - pulp papers remained relatively stable (white cardboard prices declined), and this bottom - fishing behavior is considered short - term procurement rather than a long - term bottom signal [3]. - In terms of basis and calendar spreads, the pulp basis strengthened in the second half of this week. Silver Star's basis was restored to a premium, and the price difference between the second - type pulp widened by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis of Russian softwood pulp was stable, which may indicate that the market is gradually pricing based on Russian softwood pulp. In terms of calendar spreads, the 5 - 7/5 - 9 spreads weakened significantly, reaching the risk - free positive arbitrage level, indicating that this decline is dominated by "weak demand" [3]. - For single - side trading, consider shorting at high prices. The "weak reality" logic of pulp futures has been gradually confirmed, and the overall upside space is limited. When domestic prices lead external prices and the futures market is still priced based on the second - type pulp, shorting at around the import cost of the second - type pulp can be considered [4]. - For calendar spread arbitrage, conduct 5 - 7/5 - 9 reverse arbitrage. Reverse arbitrage is considered a relatively safe strategy. Currently, a considerable number of participants are willing to bet on the expectation of "capacity clearance of softwood pulp". The confirmation of "weak reality" and the pressure of "high warehouse receipts" can drive long - position holders to shift their positions to the far - month contracts, creating reverse arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For cash - futures arbitrage, conduct long arbitrage on hardwood pulp. The performance of hardwood pulp in the first quarter has proven that its supply - demand relationship is significantly better than that of softwood pulp, and this trend is expected to continue [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Market Review: Pulp futures fluctuated sharply this week, with significant position - building and price drops from Monday to Wednesday, breaking through 5000 yuan/ton, and then rebounding to around 5200 yuan/ton after position - reduction. The main reason is the Shanghai Pulp Conference [3]. - Pulp Fundamentals: Price negotiations between pulp mills and traders during the conference led to an expected price decline in softwood pulp and relatively stable hardwood pulp. The "weak softwood, strong hardwood" pattern continued. The impact of the US - Iran war on external quotations was limited. Inventory decreased slightly in southern ports but increased in Qingdao Port. Demand improved slightly, with short - term bottom - fishing behavior [3]. - Basis and Calendar Spreads: The basis strengthened in the second half of the week, and the 5 - 7/5 - 9 spreads weakened significantly, indicating "weak demand" [3]. - Trading Strategies - Single - side: Short at high prices around the import cost of the second - type pulp [4]. - Calendar Spread Arbitrage: 5 - 7/5 - 9 reverse arbitrage [5]. - Cash - Futures Arbitrage: Long arbitrage on hardwood pulp [6] 3.2 Part Two: Pulp and Paper Industry Chain Price Data - Futures Prices: Futures prices first fell and then rose, with overall increases in positions and trading volumes [10]. - Spot Market: Spot prices of softwood and hardwood pulp declined, and the basis of softwood pulp strengthened [19]. - External Quotations: There is an expected decline in the external quotations of softwood pulp, while hardwood pulp remains relatively strong [32]. - Chip Prices: The prices of wood chips in Shandong, Guangxi, and other regions showed certain trends, and the monthly average import price of Chinese wood chips also had corresponding changes [42][44][47]. - Finished Paper: The price of white cardboard declined [50]. 3.3 Part Three: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Import Volume - Softwood Pulp: In February 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp decreased year - on - year [61]. - Hardwood Pulp: In February 2026, the import volume of hardwood pulp decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [71]. - South American Three - Country Pulp Exports: In February 2026, the export volume to China decreased slightly month - on - month [80]. - W20 Chemical Pulp Shipment: In January 2026, the shipment of W20 chemical pulp to China decreased [89]. - Domestic Production - Pulp Production: In February 2026, the domestic production of pulp decreased [101]. - Chip Import and Domestic Procurement: In February 2026, the import volume of hardwood chips decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the domestic procurement volume of wood chips also decreased [109][122]. - Inventory - Overseas Pulp Mills: In January 2026, softwood pulp mills had serious inventory accumulation [130]. - Chinese Pulp Ports: Softwood pulp had a slight inventory reduction, and hardwood pulp had a significant inventory reduction [137]. - Pulp Futures Warehouse Receipts: The newly added warehouse receipts of pulp decreased slightly this week [151]. - European Pulp Ports: Pulp inventory decreased month - on - month [161]. - Chinese Wood - Pulp Paper Production and Inventory - Production: In February 2026, the production of Chinese wood - pulp paper decreased [175]. - Industry Inventory: In December 2025, the inventory of finished paper in the Chinese paper - making industry increased [186]. - Factory Inventory: Except for tissue paper, other wood - pulp paper products had inventory accumulation [199]. - Social Inventory: Tissue paper had inventory reduction, and white cardboard had inventory accumulation [207]. - Chinese Finished Paper Import and Export - Import: The import volume of Chinese finished paper showed certain trends [214]. - Export: The export volume of Chinese finished paper also had corresponding changes [223]. - Chinese Chemical Pulp Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the supply, demand, inventory, and supply - demand differences of chemical pulp from 2020 to February 2026 [232]. 3.4 Part Four: Pulp Price Difference Data - Spot Price Difference: The price differences between Silver Star, Russian softwood pulp, and hardwood pulp showed certain trends [237]. - Calendar Spread: The 5 - 9 spread weakened [247]. - Basis: The basis of softwood pulp weakened [258]. - Profit Situation - Global Major Pulp Mills: The profit of softwood pulp mills declined significantly [268]. - Chinese Pulp Import: The import profit of softwood pulp decreased [280]. - Chinese Finished Paper Production: The production profit of finished paper showed corresponding changes [288]