国贸期货玉米周报：东北余粮趋紧，关注政策调控-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation", with a short - term amplitude of -5% - 5%, medium - term amplitude of -5% - 5%, and long - term amplitude of -5% - 5% [4][131] 2. Core View of the Report - Northeast corn supply is tightening, while the downstream has low inventory and replenishment demand, which supports the lower limit of the futures market. Policy measures such as increased wheat and rice supply may cause short - term market pullbacks, but the expected decline is limited. Long - term trends should consider factors like weather [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: The selling progress in Northeast China is nearly 80%, with limited remaining grain at the grass - roots level and tightening supply. In North China, the selling progress is slow, but the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong's deep - processing industry indicates an increase in channel supply. Attention should be paid to potential substitutes and policy - sourced grain supplies such as imported grains, increased wheat policy - based releases (up to 800,000 tons/week), and the expected auction of aged rice [4] - Demand: Feed demand is neutral - bullish. Feed enterprises have low inventory days and only replenish based on rigid demand due to deep losses in pig farming profits and meager poultry farming profits. Deep - processing demand is also neutral - bullish, with an increase in corn consumption and a rapid rise in starch processing profits, which support corn prices, while alcohol production rates and profits remain low [4] - Inventory: It is bullish. The corn inventory at north and south ports is accumulating but the absolute quantity is still low. Feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises also have low inventory levels, providing price elasticity and supporting the market's replenishment expectations [4] - Basis/Spread: It is neutral. The basis is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, indicating that the spot market is relatively strong due to regional supply shortages [4] - Profit: It is bearish. Pig self - breeding and fattening and purchased piglet fattening are both in a loss state, while corn starch processing profits are rising rapidly [4] - Valuation: It is neutral. From the perspective of the basis, the futures market valuation is at a neutral level [4] - Macro and Policy: It is bearish. The domestic policy aims to ensure supply and stabilize prices, and measures such as increased wheat release and expected rice auction pose potential regulatory risks [4] - Investment View: It is expected to oscillate. Tight supply in Northeast China and low - level inventory in the middle and lower reaches support the market, while policy measures may cause short - term pullbacks, with limited decline expected [4] - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading is expected to oscillate, and arbitrage trading should be on hold. Attention should be paid to policies and weather [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Price Trends: Charts show the basis trend of the main corn futures contract, prices at Jinzhou Port, Heilongjiang, Shandong, and Shekou Port, etc [6][7] - Positioning: The position is at a high level, with charts showing the position changes of corn contracts 01, 03, 05, 09, etc [12][13] - Spread: Charts present the spread between different corn contracts, such as C03 - C05 and C05 - C09 [19] 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Selling Progress: The selling progress charts in Northeast and North China show that Northeast China's selling progress is relatively fast [23] - Channel Supply: There is an increase in channel supply, as shown by the arrival volume at north ports and the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong's deep - processing industry [26][28] - Imported Grains: In January and February, the import of grains decreased, while the import profit of US corn was at a high level [35] - Port Conditions: Ports are accumulating inventory, but inventory levels remain low, including north and south port corn inventory and Guangdong Port's corn inventory [42][45][46] - Feed Industry: Feed enterprises have low inventory days, and the monthly feed production volume is presented in charts. Pig and poultry farming profits are generally not good, and pig prices are at a low level [49][51][53] - Deep - processing Industry: Starch processing profits are rising rapidly, but starch inventory is at a high level. Alcohol production rates and profits are low. Starch demand in papermaking has a high start - up rate but low profits [76][86][94] - Wheat Market: Wheat prices are firm, and attention should be paid to changes in its feed cost - effectiveness [102] 3.4 Overseas Corn Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - March Report: In the 2025/26 season, the corn stock - to - consumption ratio of major exporting countries has decreased [113] - US Corn: The US corn stock - to - consumption ratio has decreased, and its export sales performance is good, including total exports and exports to China [118][121]