政策压制，尿素延续震荡为主

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week's view was that the guidance price was suppressing, and the spot market was stable; this week's view is that due to policy suppression, urea will mainly fluctuate. Despite a decrease in daily output to around 210,000 tons, it remains at a high level. International supply has tightened due to the escalation of the US - Iran conflict, but the impact on the domestic market is limited as there are no new domestic quotas. Although the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has increased, procurement has basically stopped. After a significant inventory build - up during the Spring Festival, urea enterprise inventories started to decline this week. With the approaching demand, downstream buyers are starting to purchase, but the upside of the spot price is limited under policy suppression, and the futures will mainly fluctuate widely. It is expected that urea will continue to fluctuate. Key factors to watch are the Middle East situation and domestic policies. The trading strategy is to go short on a single - side basis without chasing the short, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Overview: The mainstream ex - factory prices in major regions are firm, and the market sentiment is stable. In Shandong, the industrial compound fertilizer operating rate has declined, with sufficient raw material inventory and high finished product inventory. In Henan, the market sentiment has cooled, and the ex - factory price is firm. In the delivery area and the Northeast, the ex - factory price is expected to remain stable. Some domestic urea plants are under maintenance, and the daily output has decreased. International supply has tightened, but the domestic impact is limited. The compound fertilizer operating rate has increased, but procurement has stopped. Urea enterprise inventories are decreasing. With approaching demand, downstream purchases are increasing, but the upside of the spot price is limited by policies, and the futures will mainly fluctuate. The trading strategy is to go short on a single - side basis without chasing the short, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [4]. - Core Data Changes: In the 11th week of 2026 (20260312 - 0318), the utilization rate of coal - based urea production capacity in China was 97.42%, a 0.01% week - on - week decrease; the utilization rate of gas - based urea production capacity was 73.18%, a 5.10% week - on - week decrease. In Shandong, the urea production capacity utilization rate was 98.38%, a 3.01% week - on - week increase. In the 12th week of 2026 (20260313 - 0319), the average weekly utilization rate of China's melamine production capacity was 59.31%, a 5.96 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity in the period from 20260313 - 0319 was 49.97%, a 4.41 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. As of March 20, 2026, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,750 tons, a 6.71% week - on - week increase. This week (20260313 - 20260320), the urea arrival volume in the Northeast was 80,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week. As of March 18, 2026, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 8.29 days, a 2.85% week - on - week increase. On March 18, 2026, the total inventory of urea enterprises was 808,900 tons, a 15.53% week - on - week decrease. As of March 19, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 167,000 tons, an 11.64% week - on - week decrease. In terms of profit, the production profit of urea was stable, with a fixed - bed production profit of 150 yuan/ton, a water - coal - slurry production profit of 240 yuan/ton, and an entrained - flow bed production profit of 460 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, the basis was near par, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 52 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Weekly Data Tracking - Mainstream Manufacturer Ex - factory Prices: No detailed content provided - Basis: No detailed content provided - Regional Spread: No detailed content provided - Warehouse Receipts and Spread: No detailed content provided - Urea and Methanol Futures Spread: No detailed content provided - Raw Coal Price: No detailed content provided - Production Profit: No detailed content provided - Urea/Ammonia, Synthetic Ammonia Spread: No detailed content provided - Urea Operating Rate: No detailed content provided - Urea Output: No detailed content provided - Urea Pre - orders: No detailed content provided - Urea Inventory: No detailed content provided - Other Inventory Supply and Demand: No detailed content provided - Compound Fertilizer: No detailed content provided - Melamine: No detailed content provided - Urea Export: No detailed content provided - Furniture: No detailed content provided