瑞达期货集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20260323

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation has deteriorated, but the detour expectation is gradually being realized. The fundamental pattern of the shipping industry remains unchanged, and the upward space in March and April is limited. It is difficult for shipping companies' price increase announcements to materialize. The main logic is the support from news. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and timely track airline quotes and cargo volume data, as well as the persistence of the US-Iran conflict and the progress of the subsequent Iranian regime transition [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - EC main contract closing price is 1957.400, up 57.0; EC secondary main contract closing price is 2692.9, up 338.90. The spread between EC2604 - EC2606 is -428.80, up 49.50; the spread between EC2604 - EC2608 is -408.60, up 24.40. The EC contract basis is -264.14, up 123.37. The EC main contract position is 17696 lots, down 74 [1] Spot Market - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly) is 1693.26, up 136.77; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly) is 1024.11, down 85.00. SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) is 1706.95, down 3.40; container ship capacity is 1227.97 ten thousand TEUs, up 0.10. CCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) is 1120.61, up 48.45; CCFI (European Line) (weekly) is 1463.75, up 18.88. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) is 2056.00, up 1.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) is 1904.00, up 5.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships is 0.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships is 24559.00, down 159.00 [1] Industry News - US President Trump demanded that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or the US will attack and destroy Iran's "various power plants". Iran's parliamentary speaker pointed out that if Iran's power plants are attacked, the entire Middle East's energy and oil facilities will be regarded as legitimate targets. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it will take four measures if Trump's threat is carried out. Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that the Strait of Hormuz is not closed, and ships from non - hostile countries can pass safely [1] - The central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said that the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and keep liquidity abundant [1] Market Performance - On Monday, the freight index (European Line) futures prices rose rapidly in the afternoon. The main contract EC2604 rose 3%, and the far - month contracts rose between 6 - 14%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight index is 1693.26, up 136.77 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.8%. The US - Iran conflict has led to higher oil prices, which has pushed up container transportation costs and driven up futures prices. Spot prices have also risen due to high oil prices [1] Economic Data - The eurozone's unemployment rate in January unexpectedly dropped to 6.1%, a record low, and inflation unexpectedly accelerated. The CPI in February increased by 1.9% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged as expected, but concerns about imported inflation have increased the expectation of a tighter ECB policy, and the market fully prices in the ECB's resumption of interest rate hikes in July [1] Key Events to Watch - March 24, 07:30, Japan's February core CPI annual rate; 16:15, France's March manufacturing PMI preliminary value; 16:30, Germany's March manufacturing PMI preliminary value; 17:00, eurozone's March manufacturing PMI preliminary value; 17:30, UK's March manufacturing PMI preliminary value; 21:45, US's March S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value [1]