瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20260323

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an overall view of "oscillating with a bullish bias" for the steel industry [2] Core View - On Monday, the RB2605 contract rebounded with reduced positions. The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain ample liquidity. The weekly production of rebar continued to increase, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 44.57%. Downstream demand continued to improve, with the apparent demand exceeding 2.05 million tons, and inventory turned from increasing to decreasing. Overall, both supply and demand of rebar increased, the inventory inflection point appeared, and the rising cost of furnace materials pushed up the bottom support. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA crossed and rebounded, with the green bar turning red [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,154 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the position volume was 1,351,388 lots, down 35,832 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was -43,823 lots, up 12,269 lots; the RB5 - 10 contract spread was -28 yuan/ton, unchanged; the daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 76,455 tons, up 10,669 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 176 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,374 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,420 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. In Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,210 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 136 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 40 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/wet ton, up 3 yuan; the price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,190 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,980 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 171.0267 million tons, down 0.8913 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 523,500 tons, down 37,500 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.8778 million tons, up 1,600 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 2.4953 million tons, up 90,200 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.80%, up 1.44 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.55%, up 2.65 percentage points. The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.0333 million tons, up 80,300 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 44.57%, up 1.75 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.362 million tons, down 34,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 6.5321 million tons, down 13,400 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 66.67%, up 7.29 percentage points. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 13.75 million tons, up 190,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 7.47 million tons, up 180,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.45, down 0.44; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.80%, down 5.60 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 17.20%, down 6.10 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 2.20%, down 2.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.5989 billion square meters, down 1.24518 billion square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 587.7 million square meters, down 536.86 million square meters; the area of unsold commercial housing was 402.36 million square meters, up 35.16 million square meters [2] Industry News - The US may launch a ground military operation against Iran's Kharg Island. From March 9th to March 15th, the second - hand housing transactions in Shanghai reached 7,233 units, a 27% increase from the previous period, setting the highest weekly transaction record since 2021 [2]