瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metal market sentiment continues to weaken. After gold and silver prices breached important thresholds, they continued their downward trend. The sharp correction of gold and silver in this round is mainly due to the dual pressure under the backdrop of global liquidity squeeze. In the short - term, the precious metal market will still revolve around the safe - haven sentiment under the US - Iran situation, the resilience of inflation expectations, and potential economic stagflation risks. In the medium - to - long - term, the long - term bullish logic for precious metals has not substantially reversed, and it is expected that gold and silver prices will fluctuate in the short - term to digest previous overheated gains. Short - term operations should be cautious, while long - term funds can consider gradually building long positions on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 940 yuan/gram, down 99.2 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 15,411 yuan/kilogram, down 2,214 yuan. The main contract trading volume of Shanghai Gold was 386,422 lots, up 43,191 lots; that of Shanghai Silver was 1,259,324 lots, up 125,087 lots. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 62,764 lots, down 6,229 lots; those of Shanghai Silver were 55,828 lots, down 3,257 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold was 106,746 kilograms, down 99 kilograms; that of Shanghai Silver was 364,549 kilograms, up 2,054 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 924.65 yuan, down 116.94 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No. 1 silver was 16,710 yuan, down 1,690 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 15.35 yuan/gram, down 17.72 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 1,299 yuan/gram, up 524 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF were 1,056.99 tons, down 5.14 tons; the holdings of the SLV Silver ETF were 15,248.91 tons, up 61.97 tons. The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC were 159,869 contracts, down 3,263 contracts; those of silver were 21,881 contracts, down 2,697 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,302.8 tons, down 0.19 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,345.32 tons, up 79.57 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons. The US dollar index was 99.51, up 0.28; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.01, up 0.13 [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The VIX volatility index was 26.78, up 2.72; the CBOE gold volatility index was 35.25, up 4.20. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 63.04, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was down 2.96 [2] 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said he could talk to Iran but didn't want a cease - fire for now. The US Senate voted again to reject a funding bill for the Department of Homeland Security, which has been shut down since February 14. Fed Vice - Chair Bowman expected three interest rate cuts this year due to concerns about a weak labor market. Fed Governor Waller said caution was needed in assessing the monetary policy direction, but might call for rate cuts later this year if the job market remained weak. Several European Central Bank officials sent hawkish signals, and central bank governors of Germany and Ireland said there might be an interest rate hike in April. JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays revised their forecasts for the ECB's policy path, expecting 2 - 3 interest rate hikes this year. The Trump administration started preliminary consultations for "peace talks" with Iran through a third - party, and the US put forward a series of requirements [2] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - March 24: US March S&P Global PMI preliminary value, US February new home sales annualized total, US March Richmond Fed manufacturing index; March 25: US February durable goods orders monthly rate; March 26: US Q4 real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value, US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21; March 27: US February core PCE price index annual/ monthly rate, US February personal spending monthly rate, US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [2]