瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20260323

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [3] 2) Core View of the Report - The report expects Shanghai tin to undergo low - level adjustments and suggests paying attention to whether it can stabilize between 320,000 - 340,000 yuan/ton [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 328,300 yuan/ton, down 14,180 yuan; the closing price of the May - June contract of Shanghai tin is 60 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan - LME 3 - month tin is at 42,840 US dollars/ton, down 1,060 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 24,984 lots, down 2,200 lots - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 7,064 lots, up 26 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 8,920 tons, down 35 tons - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 10,042 tons, down 2,472 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME tin is 710 tons, up 145 tons - The warrants of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 8,978 tons, down 508 tons [3] Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 341,450 yuan/ton, down 11,950 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 342,450 yuan/ton, down 10,560 yuan - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 13,150 yuan/ton, up 2,230 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 235 US dollars/ton, up 14 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,100 tons, down 700 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 325,450 yuan/ton, down 11,950 yuan - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrates by Antaike is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 329,450 yuan/ton, down 11,950 yuan - The processing fee of 60% tin concentrates by Antaike is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,505.53 tons, up 757.7 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 217,600 yuan/ton, down 7,500 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6742 million tons, up 145,500 tons - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 139,600 tons, down 5,900 tons [3] Industry News - The governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, stated that China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and use various tools to maintain sufficient liquidity - China's Ministry of Finance will allocate 250 billion yuan to support the replacement of consumer goods with new ones, increasing direct and inclusive policies for consumers - Trump demanded that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours and threatened to destroy its power plants. The US is planning to seize Iran's "nuclear reserves", and the Pentagon is preparing to deploy ground forces to Iran [3] Viewpoint Summary - On the macro - front, the US is taking actions against Iran. On the fundamental side, the supply situation is changing. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season are expected to increase domestic tin ore imports. Tin ore processing fees have slightly increased, indicating a possible缓解 of the supply shortage. - On the smelting side, the output of refined tin will gradually recover after the Chinese New Year, but most enterprises have low raw material inventory, and some external - ore - purchasing capacities are at a loss, affecting the output of refined tin. - In terms of imports, Indonesia's tin exports have increased, the import window has opened, and the import pressure has increased. - On the demand side, the development of the AI field will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have fallen, holders are reluctant to sell, the spot premium exceeds 2,500 yuan/ton, downstream purchasing at low prices has increased, and inventory has decreased significantly, while LME inventory has increased and the spot premium has decreased. - Technically, the position has decreased and the price has declined under pressure, with both long and short positions trading cautiously [3]