瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The breeding side is slaughtering pigs normally, with an increase in the slaughter of some large pigs, leading to supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether large-scale farms will reduce the supply at the end of the month to briefly relieve the supply pressure [2]. - The slaughtering enterprises' operating rate is continuously rising but has not returned to the pre - holiday level, which is within expectations. Terminal consumption is sluggish, the sales speed is slow, and slaughtering enterprises are forced to store meat in cold storage, accelerating the increase in frozen product storage capacity [2]. - Overall, supply is high while demand lacks positive factors, and the fundamentals are bearish [2]. - The spot price of live pigs has fallen below 10 yuan/kg and will continue to bottom out. On the futures market, the main 2605 contract closed down 3.53%, breaking through the 10,000 - yuan mark, and the market is accelerating its decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of capital flows on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 9,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 207,256 lots, an increase of 3,587 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts for live pigs is 1,051 lots, with no change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 62,686 lots, an increase of 1,805 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan is 9,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; in Siping, Jilin it is 9,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; in Yunfu, Guangdong it is 10,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan [2]. - The basis of the main live pig contract is - 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national live pig inventory is 42,9670,000 heads, a decrease of 7130,000 heads; the national inventory of breeding sows is 3,9610,000 heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads [2]. - The year - on - year CPI is 1.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan [2]. - The spot price of corn is 2,453.04 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.57 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 970.05, an increase of 6.33 [2]. - The monthly output of feed is 30,086,000 tons, an increase of 307,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,424 yuan/head, a decrease of 6 yuan [2]. - The breeding profit from purchasing piglets is - 141.48 yuan/head, a decrease of 23.3 yuan; the breeding profit from self - breeding and self - raising is - 297.68 yuan/head, a decrease of 14.53 yuan [2]. - The monthly import volume of pork is 50,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 13.7 yuan/kg, with no change [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 3,1770,000 heads, a decrease of 1,2270,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 573.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.9 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of March 22, according to Mysteel data, the completion rate of the planned live pig slaughter of key provincial breeding enterprises is 69.29%, and the overall progress is slightly slow [2].