瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term agricultural demand for urea is gradually weakening, and the return - green fertilizer application is basically ending. Policies for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices of urea are frequently issued, which cools down market trading sentiment. The high - nitrogen fertilizer production of compound fertilizer plants has increased, and the short - term compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain a steady and slightly increasing trend. The overall inventory of urea may continue to decline, and the UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1850 - 1920 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1884 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 43 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread is - 59 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The main contract position is 220,232 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 6,330 lots. The net position of the top 20 is - 47,805. The exchange warehouse receipts are 8,712, with a week - on - week increase of 213 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui are 1870, 1860, 1870, and 1870 yuan/ton respectively, with the prices in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui remaining unchanged and that in Jiangsu decreasing by 20 yuan/ton. The main contract basis is - 14 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 43 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 595 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25 US dollars/ton, and FOB China's main port is 712.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 67.5 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 16.7 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.2 tons; the enterprise inventory is 80.89 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 14.87 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 92.19%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.1%. The daily urea output is 217,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,600 tons. The urea export volume is 28 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 32 tons. The monthly urea output is 6,289,610 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 271,170 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 49.97%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.41%. The melamine operating rate is 59.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 5.96%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 131 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 59 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 1,012 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 726 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 517.99 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18.45 tons. The weekly output of melamine is 32,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,400 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of March 18, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 80.89 tons, a decrease of 14.87 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 15.53%. As of March 19, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 16.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2 tons, a decline of 11.64%. As of March 19, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1,519,400 tons, a decrease of 18,200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%, and the capacity utilization rate was 92.19%, a decrease of 1.10% from the previous period [2]