瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. However, the market has already reacted in advance, and the overall impact is limited. Recently, rapeseed meal has fluctuated and declined from high levels, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the sharp rise in international oil prices have promoted the expected demand for vegetable oil biodiesel. The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly in the first 20 days of March, and the production has decreased slightly month - on - month, with the end - of - month inventory expected to decline. The domestic rapeseed oil futures price has generally maintained a high - level shock recently, with short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9950 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2399 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. The closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 726.1 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.1 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5898 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is 119 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is - 56 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 239709 lots, up 2276 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal is 570722 lots, down 7656 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is - 22168 lots, down 4498 lots; the net long position of rapeseed meal is - 138882 lots, down 11735 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 805 sheets, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal is 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10420 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2640 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10401.25 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 5344.36 yuan/ton, down 29.43 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 470 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 241 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8980 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9920 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3320 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1440 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production: The predicted annual production of rapeseed is 95.02 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; the annual predicted production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total import quantity of rapeseed in the current month is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; the import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 20 million tons, down 5 million tons; the import quantity of rapeseed meal in the current month is 18.25 million tons, down 8.25 million tons [2]. - Pressing profit: The import rapeseed disk pressing profit is 26 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan [2]. - Inventory and开机率: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 17.5 million tons, down 2.5 million tons; the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed is 6.13%, down 1.87% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.4 million tons, up 0.4 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 27.65 million tons, up 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 5.75 million tons, down 2.3 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 30.2 million tons, up 1.9 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 0.52 million tons, up 0.7 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 1.04 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social consumer goods retail total of catering revenue is 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 24.11%, down 1.84%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 24.1%, down 1.85%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 19.82%, up 0.67%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 19.82%, up 0.67% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 28.94%, up 0.25%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.1%, up 0.03%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.09%, down 0.6%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.3%, down 0.28% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On March 20 (Friday), the ICE rapeseed futures fluctuated and closed lower, but were still close to the key support level near the top of the long - term uptrend. The most actively traded May rapeseed futures contract closed down 1.80 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 726.50 Canadian dollars per ton, and the contract fell 1.8% this week [2]. - The continuous conflict in the Middle East has led to a continued strengthening of international oil prices, boosting the price of the US soybean market. However, as the South American soybean harvest progresses, the supply - side pressure is gradually increasing, and the competitive advantage of Brazilian soybeans is good, which has frustrated the market's export expectations for US soybeans, continuing to restrain the price of the US soybean market [2].