生猪期货：近弱远强、破位下行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - From March 16 - 22, 2026, the national live hog spot price fluctuated at a low level and showed a slight decline, not following the futures to reach a new low. The national average price of outer ternary live hogs dropped from about 10.80 yuan/kg on March 16 to 9.74 yuan/kg on March 22, with a weekly cumulative decline of 1.06 yuan/kg and a decline rate of 9.81% [1]. - In the short - term, the supply pressure remains unrelieved, the large - scale pig enterprises' slaughter plans are still high, and the clearance of large - weight pig sources is not completed. The imbalance between supply and demand is difficult to fundamentally change in the short - term, and there is no basis for a significant price increase. However, the current pig price has fallen to the lowest level since 2019, the losses of the breeding end are intensifying, the room for further price cuts is limited, and policy purchases and capacity regulation will gradually improve market expectations. Some slaughter enterprises may start frozen product warehousing, and secondary fattening funds may enter the market tentatively, providing phased support for prices. Opportunities for oversold rebounds should be grasped [1]. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - The national live hog spot price was in a low - level shock state from March 16 - 22, 2026, showing a slight decline. The futures price hit a new low, but the spot price did not follow [1]. Factors to Watch - Changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the progress of consumption recovery, and policy regulation dynamics [2]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Piglets | Yuan/head | 280.95 | 317.14 | - 36.19 | Weekly | | Weekly average slaughter weight | Kilograms | 123.28 | 123.17 | 0.11 | Weekly | | Profit from purchasing piglets for breeding | Yuan/head | - 154.23 | - 143.87 | - 10.36 | Weekly | | Profit from self - breeding and self - raising | Yuan/head | - 263.99 | - 233.72 | - 30.27 | Weekly | | Slaughter start - up rate | % | 30.12 | 31.54 | - 1.42 | Weekly | [3] Other Analyses - The report also includes analyses of the futures and spot market, supply, demand, and cost - profit, with corresponding data charts and data sources from Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [5][6][14][19]