Orient Securities·2026-03-23 10:24Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate sector [9] Core Insights - The current "small spring" in the real estate market shows characteristics such as price-driven volume, stronger second-hand housing compared to new homes, dominance of core cities, and a high proportion of demand from first-time buyers. However, the overall performance is not exceeding expectations, indicating a structural issue in transaction volume sustainability [2][3][60] - Beijing and Shanghai are accumulating positive signals, with a notable reduction in supply due to sellers withdrawing listings. The inventory and de-stocking cycles in these cities are at healthy levels, suggesting a potential stabilization in housing prices [2][3][60] - The report suggests that Beijing and Shanghai may lead the recovery in housing prices during this downturn, with a timeline expected within the next two years. Investors are advised to closely monitor market conditions for potential opportunities [2][3] Market Performance - The A-share real estate index experienced a weekly decline of 4.21%, underperforming the CSI 300 index [14] - The Hong Kong real estate index showed a weekly increase of 0.23%, outperforming the Hang Seng index [19] Second-hand Housing Weekly Tracking - Transaction volumes in first and second-tier cities continue to rise, with Shenzhen seeing a significant week-on-week increase of 19.8%. Beijing's transaction volume increased by 8.0% [4][37] - The average listing price in first-tier cities has turned positive, with Shanghai's listing price increasing by 0.11% week-on-week [23] New Housing Weekly Tracking - New home transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have shown continued growth, with Beijing's week-on-week increase at 32% and Shenzhen at 27% [5][57] - The inventory of new homes in first-tier cities continues to decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.7% [59] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on national real estate companies or local state-owned enterprises that are deeply engaged in the Beijing and Shanghai markets, given their leading performance [3][6][60]