南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告：本周降雨整体有限，进入4月后马来半岛土壤湿度一般

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In late February 2026, the Southern Oscillation Index was 11, a typical La Niña atmospheric signal, but the oceanic La Niña state ended in January 2026, entering the ENSO neutral state. There is a mismatch between the ocean and the atmosphere, and it is possible to enter the El Niño state in the late spring [1] - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago was unevenly distributed, mainly concentrated in most parts of Indonesia and eastern Malaysia. The soil humidity in some areas of Malaysia and Indonesia is poor and may face drought risks [2] - In the next two weeks, overall rainfall in the production areas will be limited [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weather and Climate Index - The Southern Oscillation Index value at the end of February 2026 was 11, indicating a typical La Niña atmospheric signal. The El Niño index as of the end of January 26 was -0.39, higher than the La Niña threshold, meaning the oceanic La Niña state ended in January and entered the ENSO neutral state [1] - There is a mismatch or lag in the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, which is a common scenario during the transition from La Niña to neutral (and possibly eventually to El Niño) in the ENSO cycle. El Niño may occur as early as April or as late as late summer or early autumn [1] Rainfall Conditions - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago was unevenly distributed, mainly concentrated in most parts of Indonesia and eastern Malaysia. The rainfall in Jambi and Central Kalimantan in Indonesia was relatively less, and the rainfall in the Malay Peninsula remained scarce [2] - In the next two weeks, overall rainfall in the production areas will be limited [4] Soil Humidity Conditions - The soil humidity in Johor and Pahang in Malaysia is poor. In Indonesia, the soil in Riau, Jambi, the southeastern part of North Sumatra, the northeastern part of South Sumatra, a small part of West Kalimantan, and the southern part of Central Kalimantan is relatively dry. If the deep - soil humidity continues to decline, there will still be a drought risk in the future [2] - The monthly situation shows that the situation in the Malay Peninsula in April is expected to be slightly worse, but there may be a slight improvement after May [2] - The soil humidity in most parts of Indonesia improved in March, but the soil in the Malay Peninsula remained dry [14] Conditions of Each Production Area - Jambi, Indonesia: Rainfall increased at the end of the season, but the improvement in soil humidity was limited [24] - West Kalimantan, Indonesia: Rainfall was average, and the soil moisture decreased at the end of the month [30] - Central Kalimantan, Indonesia: Rainfall showed an increasing trend, and the soil humidity was restored [37] - East Kalimantan, Indonesia: Heavy rain occurred at the end of February, and the soil humidity continued to be restored [45] - Riau, Indonesia: Rainfall increased limitedly, and the soil humidity continued to decline [53] - South Sumatra, Indonesia: Rainfall increased, but the soil moisture remained at a low level [60] - North Sumatra, Indonesia: Rainfall was limited, and the soil humidity did not improve [66] - Johor, Malaysia: Rainfall was scarce in the first quarter, and the soil moisture was poor [72] - Pahang, Malaysia: The rainfall was still scarce, and the increase in soil humidity was insufficient [79] - Perak, Malaysia: Rainfall was generally limited in the first quarter, and the soil humidity was insufficient [86] - Sabah, Malaysia: The cumulative rainfall was abundant, and the soil was relatively moist [92] - Sarawak, Malaysia: Rainfall was acceptable, and the soil humidity continued to rise [98]