中通快递：量升价稳业绩稳健，提升股东回报显价值-20260323

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 49.1 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.08 billion yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year [4] - The company has implemented a "de-involution" policy to stabilize prices, resulting in a steady revenue growth despite intense price competition [4][7] - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns by targeting an annual cash dividend and share buyback amounting to no less than 50% of the previous fiscal year's adjusted net profit [7] Financial Performance - The company achieved a total express business volume of 38.52 billion pieces in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, with a stable market share [4] - The average revenue per piece saw a slight decline of 1.7%, but overall revenue growth was supported by a significant increase in direct customer business revenue, which grew by 111.8% [4] - The company's gross profit for 2025 was 12.27 billion yuan, down 10.5% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed in the second half of the year [6] Cost Management - The company has effectively controlled core costs, leading to a 12.2% reduction in unit transportation costs and a 3.7% decrease in sorting center operating costs [5] - Other costs increased significantly due to the rise in direct customer revenue, with total other costs reaching 11.68 billion yuan, up 96.2% year-on-year [5] Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 10.65 billion yuan, 11.97 billion yuan, and 13.35 billion yuan for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 17.3%, 12.4%, and 11.5% [7][9]