钢材&铁矿石日报：原料表现偏强，钢价震荡走高-20260323

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.90%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Supported by strong raw materials, the rebar price oscillated upward, but the fundamentals remained unchanged, and the upward space was limited. It is expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated strongly with a daily increase of 0.97%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Benefiting from strong demand and cost support from raw materials, the price rebounded from a low level. However, supply is increasing, and there are concerns about demand. The subsequent trend of high inventory should be viewed with caution, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated upward with a daily increase of 0.92%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Driven by strong energy and marginal improvement in demand, the ore price remained high. However, the demand growth space was limited, and supply increased steadily. The fundamentals of iron ore were weakly stable, and the upward driving force of the high-valued ore price was not strong. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to steel performance [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - From January to February 2026, China's export value of construction machinery was 75.081 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.4%. In January 2026, the import and export trade volume of construction machinery was 5.762 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 17%. In February 2026, the total import and export was 5.31 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 51.6% [7]. - As of the end of February 2026, the inventory of the national passenger vehicle industry was 3.33 million vehicles, a decrease of 240,000 vehicles from the previous month and an increase of 250,000 vehicles compared with February 2025. The inventory of new energy vehicle manufacturers increased from 620,000 in September 2025 to 680,000 in February 2026, and the overall inventory pressure was relatively high [8]. - The US Bank EXIM plans to provide up to $10 billion in financing for the Mesabi Metallics iron ore project. The project is located in the core area of the Mesabi iron ore belt in the United States, with a resource volume of about 1.3 billion tons, mainly magnetite, and the iron grade of the raw ore is about 25% - 30% Fe. It is equipped with a beneficiation and pelletizing capacity of 7 million tons per year, and can produce direct reduction grade (DR-grade) pellets with an iron grade of over 67% [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,220 yuan, 3,210 yuan, and 3,346 yuan respectively; the spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,300 yuan, 3,230 yuan, and 3,327 yuan respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,190 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 80 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,030 yuan [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 793 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 772 yuan, the ocean freight from Australia was 11.77 US dollars, the ocean freight from Brazil was 30.53 US dollars, the SGX swap price (current month) was 106.74 US dollars, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 109.55 US dollars [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,154 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.90%, the highest price was 3,165 yuan, the lowest price was 3,111 yuan, the trading volume was 1,011,355 lots, the volume difference was 287,216 lots, the open interest was 1,351,388 lots, and the position difference was -35,832 lots [12]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract was 3,330 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.97%, the highest price was 3,335 yuan, the lowest price was 3,287 yuan, the trading volume was 472,394 lots, the volume difference was 195,880 lots, the open interest was 1,055,371 lots, and the position difference was -42,832 lots [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 819.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.92%, the highest price was 826.0 yuan, the lowest price was 812.5 yuan, the trading volume was 263,330 lots, the volume difference was 16,045 lots, the open interest was 441,933 lots, and the position difference was -8,257 lots [12]. Related Charts - There are charts showing the inventory changes of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, as well as the production situation of steel mills, including inventory volume, weekly changes, seasonal patterns, and the opening rate and profitability of steel mills [14][23][31] 后市研判 - Rebar: Supply and demand are both increasing. The weekly output of rebar increased by 80,300 tons, and the inventory is still higher than the same period last year. The demand is improving seasonally, but the high-frequency trading volume is weak, and the subsequent demand growth space is limited. Supported by strong raw materials, the price oscillates upward, but the upward space is limited, and it is expected to continue the oscillatory trend [40]. - Hot-rolled coil: Supply and demand are both rising. The output of hot-rolled coil increased by 49,500 tons week-on-week, and the inventory is still high. The demand is resilient, but there are concerns about demand, especially the export performance is average under the disturbance of the Middle East conflict. The price has rebounded from a low level, but the subsequent trend of high inventory should be viewed with caution [41]. - Iron ore: Supply and demand have changed. The terminal consumption of iron ore has rebounded, but the improvement space of demand may be limited. The supply of iron ore is increasing steadily. Driven by strong energy and marginal improvement in demand, the ore price remains high, but the upward driving force is not strong, and it is expected to maintain a high-level oscillatory trend [42].