每日核心期货品种分析-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The performance of domestic futures contracts on March 23, 2026, showed a mixed trend, with some commodities rising and others falling. The market was highly influenced by the Middle - East situation, especially the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which had a significant impact on energy - related commodities [6][7]. - The prices of various commodities are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term; lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation; crude oil has a risk of further price increases; and prices of other commodities such as asphalt, PP, plastic, PVC, and urea also face different degrees of uncertainty and are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and geopolitical situations [11][12][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - As of the close on March 23, 2026, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Propylene, butadiene rubber, LPG, coking coal, plastic, and polypropylene hit the daily limit up. Pure benzene and styrene rose more than 10%, methanol, ethylene glycol, and PX rose more than 8%, and PTA, coke, and SC crude oil rose more than 7%. On the downside, palladium fell more than 12%, Shanghai silver and platinum fell more than 11%, and Shanghai gold and polysilicon fell more than 8%. Stock index futures and bond futures also had different degrees of rise and fall [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:28 on March 23, coking coal 2605, CSI 1000 2606, and crude oil 2605 had capital inflows of 1.768 billion, 1.341 billion, and 1.155 billion respectively; Shanghai gold 2604, Shanghai silver 2606, and platinum 2606 had capital outflows of 4.826 billion, 2.839 billion, and 0.859 billion respectively [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - On March 23, Shanghai copper opened high and closed low, with an intraday decline of more than 2%. The overseas copper concentrate supply remained tight, and domestic port copper concentrate inventory decreased. The waste - copper market was also restricted, leading to a reduction in waste - copper production. Although the raw - material supply for copper smelting was affected, electrolytic copper production was not directly affected. Downstream demand recovery was sluggish, and copper prices were under pressure. In March, production increased due to previous smelter production cuts and new production capacity, but there were maintenance plans in the second quarter, which would lead to a decline in production. As of February 2026, copper apparent consumption was 1.1739 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.07%. In March, the air - conditioning peak season increased demand, and downstream procurement enthusiasm increased. The copper - foil market had active transactions, and the copper - rod market released production capacity. However, from January 1 to 15, March, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger - vehicle market decreased by 28% year - on - year. Overall, the copper price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation and the US dollar trend [9][11]. 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - On March 23, lithium carbonate opened low and closed high, with the price turning positive at the end of the session. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 146,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 143,500 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton. In February 2026, China's lithium - carbonate import volume was 26,426.79 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.61% and a year - on - year increase of 114.36%. Chile was the largest import source. The export of lithium ore from Zimbabwe was expected to gradually resume after the new export license was approved. Although the inventory of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, the overall demand growth showed signs of weakening. From January 1 to 15, March, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger - vehicle market decreased by 28% year - on - year. Lithium - carbonate prices were expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [12]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil - EIA data showed that the US crude - oil inventory increased more than expected, but the refined - oil inventory decreased significantly, and the overall oil inventory increased slightly. The market focused on the Middle - East situation. Iran's daily crude - oil production was about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of the global production, and its daily export was about 1.6 million barrels. The Strait of Hormuz was an important shipping route for crude oil. The Strait of Hormuz had been almost shut down for several days, leading to production cuts in Middle - East oil - producing countries. The US and Iran had no intention to stop the war. The situation in the Middle - East was tense, and there was a risk of further price increases for crude oil. Although some measures had been taken to relieve the short - term supply pressure, they were still insufficient compared with the previous shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz. Attention should be paid to the actual crude - oil shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz [14]. 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 21.8% last week, which was 4.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year and at the lowest level in recent years. After the Spring Festival, the downstream industries' production rates mostly increased, but the road - asphalt production rate was still lower than that at the end of January. The shipment volume in East China decreased, and the national shipment volume decreased by 37.6% to 109,900 tons. The asphalt factory - warehouse inventory rate decreased slightly, still at the lowest level in recent years. The price of asphalt in Shandong increased, and the basis was repaired but still at a low level. China's import of Venezuelan crude oil was expected to decrease significantly, and the Middle - East raw - material supply would be affected. Although the import of Iranian asphalt was small, the import of asphalt from other Middle - East countries accounted for about 6% of China's asphalt production. This week, Qilu Petrochemical resumed production, but the main refineries in East and South China reduced their loads. After the Lantern Festival, the terminal demand gradually recovered. The asphalt price was expected to be strong and volatile, following the crude - oil price, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle - East situation [15]. 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of March 20, the downstream production rate of PP increased by 0.65 percentage points to 46.36%. After the Spring Festival, the downstream's acceptance of high - price raw materials was low, and the demand recovery was slow. On March 23, some parking devices of Dongguan Juzhengyuan restarted, and the PP enterprise production rate increased to about 77.5%. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire increased to about 26%. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory decreased and was at a neutral level in recent years. Due to the Middle - East situation, the crude - oil price rebounded. Although the device production rate recovered slightly, it was still lower than that at the end of February. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream rigid demand was released, and the price of BOPP film increased. The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP improved, but the upstream relied on Middle - East liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil. If the Strait of Hormuz could not resume navigation, the refinery load reduction would increase, and the PP price was expected to be strongly volatile. Attention should be paid to the downstream resumption of production after the festival and the development of the Middle - East situation [16][17]. 3.2.6 Plastic - On March 23, the plastic production rate remained at about 85%, at a neutral level. As of the week of March 20, the downstream production rate of PE increased by 3.76 percentage points to 37.59%. After the Spring Festival, the downstream gradually resumed production but had not returned to the pre - festival level. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory decreased and was at a neutral level in recent years. Due to the Middle - East situation, the crude - oil price rebounded. New production capacity was put into operation in January 2026, and there were no new production - capacity plans in the first quarter. The plastic production rate decreased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream factories resumed work, and the rigid demand was released. The prices of agricultural films in North, East, and South China continued to rise. The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastic improved, but the import from the Middle - East affected the international price and supply. If the Strait of Hormuz could not resume navigation, the refinery load reduction would increase, and the plastic price was expected to be strongly volatile. Attention should be paid to the downstream resumption of production after the festival and the development of the Middle - East situation [18]. 3.2.7 PVC - The calcium - carbide price in the northwest region was stable. The PVC production rate decreased by 1.23 percentage points to 80.12%, at a neutral level in recent years. After the Spring Festival, the average downstream production rate of PVC increased by 2.33 percentage points to 41.66%, but was 4.79 percentage points lower than the same period last year. After the Spring Festival, the downstream resumed production, but the downstream's resistance to high - price raw materials increased. In terms of exports, some overseas device loads decreased, and the export price increased significantly. Under the improvement of supply and demand, the social inventory decreased for the first time after the Spring Festival but was still high. The real - estate market was still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement of the real - estate market needed time. The PVC price was expected to be strongly volatile if the Strait of Hormuz could not resume navigation [19]. 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed at the daily limit up. The domestic coal - production resumption continued, and the domestic mine production rate reached 87.16%, a week - on - week increase of 4.84%. The production and production rate were both higher than the same period last year. The downstream purchasing was active, the mine inventory decreased by 235,900 tons, the downstream coking - enterprise inventory increased by 356,000 tons, and the steel - mill inventory decreased by 37,000 tons. The coke production increased, the steel - mill profitability recovered, and the production rate increased by 1.29%. Due to the Middle - East situation, the coking - coal price followed the increase in crude - oil price, and the coking - coal price was pushed up by the energy - substitution effect and the downstream recovery in the peak season [20][21]. 3.2.9 Urea - Most areas' urea quotes were stable over the weekend, and some factories lowered their prices. After the futures price rose today, the trading sentiment improved, and the spot price was expected to be firm in the short term. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan were in the range of 1,800 - 1,840 yuan/ton. The daily production of urea was maintained at around 210,000 - 220,000 tons, and the state - reserve supply entered the market, with overall sufficient supply. The downstream agricultural demand weakened but still had some end - stage purchases. The compound - fertilizer factories maintained a high - production - rate trend to reduce inventory, and the production - capacity utilization rate was expected to continue to be released next week. The cost increased, and the prices of synthetic ammonia, ammonium chloride, and ammonium sulfate all rose. The inventory continued to decline, and the international urea market drove up the domestic urea sentiment. The urea market was expected to be volatile at a high level, and attention should be paid to the downstream's acceptance of high prices [22].