【冠通期货研究报告】螺纹日报：震荡偏强-20260323

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shockingly bullish" rating for the rebar market [1] Core View of the Report - The main rebar contract is expected to run with a shockingly bullish trend. With the significant increase in coking coal and coke prices, the cost support for rebar has strengthened. In the short and medium term, the moving averages are showing an upward trend, breaking through the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. It will mainly follow the spot price fluctuations to repair the basis. As it enters the peak season, the fundamentals are expected to continue the shockingly bullish trend, supported by demand recovery and inventory reduction. Due to geopolitical events affecting costs and export expectations, rebar prices are likely to maintain a shockingly bullish pattern. Continued attention should be paid to the downstream resumption of work progress and inventory reduction speed [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its open interest by 35,832 lots on Monday, and the trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1,011,355 lots. In terms of the daily moving average, it short - term broke through the 5 - day moving average of 3140, and the daily line is above the medium - term 30 - day moving average of 3093 and the 60 - day moving average of 3115, indicating that the short - and medium - term trends are strengthening [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar is 3250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price is at a discount of 96 yuan/ton to the spot price [2] Fundamental Data - Supply and demand situation: - Supply side: In the week of March 19, 2026, the rebar output was 2.0333 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 80,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 228,800 tons. The steel mill's resumption of production is at a moderate pace, and the year - on - year contraction is obvious, so the supply side exerts limited pressure on prices [3] - Demand side: In the week of March 19, 2026, the current apparent demand was 2.0809 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 312,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 349,100 tons. Seasonal resumption of work drives the rebound of apparent demand, but it is still weak year - on - year. The intensity of demand recovery is the core variable in the follow - up [3] - Inventory side: Social inventory is 6.5321 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,400 tons, starting to have a slight inventory reduction. Steel mill inventory is 2.362 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,200 tons, also starting to reduce inventory. The total inventory is 8.8941 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,600 tons, entering the weekly inventory reduction for the first time, which verifies the start of demand. However, the absolute inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio are still at a high level, suppressing the upward space of prices [3] - Cost and profit: The rebar price valuation is at a low level. Geopolitical factors drive up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3] - Macroeconomic aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, sent positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as "issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds", "arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds", and "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" to stabilize growth. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real estate support has increased, and the sentiment has received phased support [5] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low rebar price valuation, geopolitical factors driving up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support repair [6] - Bearish factors: Continued sluggish terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slowdown in inventory reduction speed, and bearish capital position structure [6]