冠通期货研究报告：焦煤日报：能源替代效应下焦煤涨停-20260323

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The coking coal market showed a high - opening and high - closing trend and hit the daily limit. Despite the increase in domestic coal production and high同比 production and operation, downstream procurement was active. Energy substitution and downstream recovery in the peak season drove up the price of coking coal, but short - term market risks increased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Coking coal opened high and closed at the daily limit. Domestic coal mines' production recovery continued, with the current domestic mine operation rate reaching 87.16%, a 4.84% increase from last week. Production and operation were both higher than the same period last year. Downstream procurement was active, with mine inventories decreasing by 23.59 tons, coke enterprises' inventories increasing by 35.6 tons, and steel mills' inventories decreasing by 3.7 tons. With the peak season approaching, downstream enterprises started to build up inventories, coke production increased, steel mills' profitability recovered, and the operation rate increased by 1.29%. The weekly daily output of hot metal was 2.2815 million tons. Coking enterprises were expected to raise prices. The Middle - East situation heated up, and the price of coking coal followed the increase in crude oil prices [1]. 3.2 Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 coking raw coal was 1,114 yuan/ton, a 34 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu was 1,320 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main futures contract was 1,289.5 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 30.5 yuan/ton, a 98.5 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1 Supply Data - From March 14th to March 20th, the operation rate of 523 sample domestic mines for coking coal was 88.59%, a 1.43 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The average daily output of refined coking coal was 79.81 tons, a 2.11 - ton increase from the previous period [4]. 3.3.2 Demand Data - From March 14th to March 20th, the average daily output of downstream independent coke enterprises was 64.24 tons, a 0.34 - ton increase from the previous period. The average daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.31 tons, a 0.31 - ton increase from the previous period. The average daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills was 2.2815 million tons, a 695,000 - ton increase from the previous period [5].