【冠通期货研究报告】甲醇日报：地缘局势下继续强势-20260323

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With new developments in the Middle - East situation and Iran issuing an ultimatum, crude oil strengthened during the trading day. Methanol further soared and should be treated as remaining strong, with potential upside. It is crucial to closely monitor the current US - Iran situation and crude oil trends, though short - term risks are significant [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory Data: As of the week ending March 19, China's methanol production was 2,074,815 tons, an increase of 53,680 tons from the previous week; the plant capacity utilization rate was 92.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.65%. There were new maintenance and production - cut devices this period, and some devices resumed production. Since the overall recovery volume exceeded the loss volume, production increased and capacity utilization rose. China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 485,400 tons, a decrease of 37,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.21%; sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 279,300 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.26% [1] - Exchange Policy: To further enhance the functionality of methanol futures and better serve the industry, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange decided to add Anhui Province as a methanol futures delivery area, to be implemented from the date of the announcement of new delivery warehouses. It is now publicly soliciting designated delivery warehouses for methanol futures. The premium and discount for the new delivery area is 150 yuan/ton, to be implemented from the date of the announcement of new delivery warehouses [1] 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - The state implemented temporary regulatory measures on refined oil prices, with the actual increase in gasoline and diesel prices being 1,160 yuan and 1,115 yuan respectively [2] - Saudi Arabia reduced its crude oil supply to Asian buyers in April, only supplying Arab light crude oil exported from Yanbu Port to long - term customers [2] - International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol stated that it might take six months to restore oil and gas supplies from the Gulf region [2] - Iran proposed four measures in response to Trump's "ultimatum" to open the Strait of Hormuz, including completely closing the Strait of Hormuz [2]