【冠通期货研究报告】热卷日报：震荡偏强-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot-rolled coil industry is "Oscillating with an upward bias" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The main hot-rolled coil contract is expected to oscillate with an upward bias. The short - and medium - term moving averages are strengthening, standing above the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. The market is currently in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. The apparent demand has rebounded significantly recently, and the seasonal peak season is approaching. The overall production has shrunk, which supports the price. However, the high inventory restricts the upside potential to some extent. Now that the de - stocking process has started, attention should be paid to the subsequent de - stocking progress [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures Price: The open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased by 42,832 lots on Monday, with a trading volume of 472,394 lots, which was higher than the previous trading day. In terms of the daily moving average, it broke through the 5 - day moving average around 3310 in the short term, was at the 30 - day moving average of 3253 in the medium term, and was running above the medium - term resistance of the 60 - day moving average around 3270 [1] - Spot Price: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was - 40 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply Side: The actual weekly production was 3.0021 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 241,200 tons. The resumption of production by steel mills was moderate, and the supply contraction year - on - year was obvious. The supply side exerted limited pressure on prices [4] - Demand Side: The apparent consumption was 3.1051 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 151,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 201,400 tons. The resumption of work in the manufacturing industry drove the rebound of apparent demand, but it was still weak year - on - year. The intensity of demand recovery was the core variable in the follow - up [4] - Inventory Side: The social inventory was 3.7633 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 59,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 522,800 tons. The social inventory had its first weekly de - stocking, but the absolute quantity was still much higher than last year. The steel mill inventory was 849,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,200 tons, and the pressure on steel mill inventory was relieved. The total inventory was 4.6129 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 103,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 513,900 tons. It ended the inventory accumulation phase and entered the de - stocking phase, but the total inventory was still at a high level. The first weekly de - stocking verified the start of demand, but the absolute social inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio were still at a high level, suppressing the upside space of prices [4] - Policy Side: On March 5, 2026, the Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds to strengthen the support for infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting the medium - and long - term confidence in the market. However, the current manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, and there was no substantial improvement in downstream orders. It would take time for the policy to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, and it was difficult to reverse the high - inventory situation in the short term [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: Cost support, supply contraction, demand resilience, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strengthening of raw materials [6] - Bearish Factors: Slow realization of demand, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro - level disturbances [6]