中东冲突加剧，甲醇坚挺上涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between the US and Iran has led to a significant reduction in imported methanol, driving up the price of domestic methanol. The profit of coal - to - methanol has expanded rapidly to around 800 - 850 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is continuously loose. However, due to the ongoing conflict, the market fears a sharp reduction in future imports, and the inventory in ports is rapidly decreasing. The supply shortage problem in domestic ports is becoming increasingly prominent. With the restart of some downstream MTO devices, the situation of supply contraction and demand increase will accelerate port destocking. Methanol should be treated with a bullish mindset [4]. - The trading strategies include going long at low prices without chasing highs for single - sided trading, paying attention to positive spreads for arbitrage, and selling put options in the over - the - counter market [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - In the raw coal aspect, the coal mine start - up rate has increased. As of March 20, the start - up rate of coal mines in Ordos is 71%, and that in Yulin is 42%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin is around 4.1 million tons. With the improvement of demand, the pit - mouth price has stopped falling and started to rise. The price of raw coal is generally stable, and the profit of coal - to - methanol has expanded rapidly [4]. - On the supply side, in March, due to the intensification of the US - Iran conflict, the import of methanol has significantly decreased, driving up the price of domestic methanol. The methanol start - up rate remains high and stable, and the domestic supply is continuously loose. The methanol plants in Iran are still in a state of full - scale shutdown, and the daily output has dropped from 23,000 tons to around 1,200 tons. Although some devices are reported to have resumed production, the output is still low [4]. - On the demand side, the start - up rate of MTO devices is low. Some MTO devices are shut down or under - loaded, while some have the expectation of restart. The restart of downstream MTO devices will increase the demand for methanol [4]. - The inventory in ports is rapidly decreasing. As of March 18, 2026, the total port inventory is 1.2617 million tons, a decrease of 51,100 tons compared with the previous period. The import in April is expected to drop to around 550,000 tons, and the port destocking amplitude exceeds 300,000 tons. The supply shortage problem in domestic ports is becoming increasingly prominent [4]. - The trading strategies are: for single - sided trading, go long at low prices without chasing highs; for arbitrage, pay attention to positive spreads; in the over - the - counter market, sell put options [4]. 3.2 Weekly Data Tracking - Supply - Domestic: As of March 19, the overall start - up load of domestic methanol plants is 78.11%, an increase of 1.84 percentage points compared with last week and 5.67 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The start - up load in the northwest region is 87.61%, an increase of 1.95 percentage points compared with last week and 4.91 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The average start - up load of non - integrated methanol plants is 72.00%, an increase of 1.45 percentage points compared with last week [5]. - Supply - International: In the period from March 14 to March 20, 2026, the international methanol (excluding China) output is 719,549 tons, an increase of 31,540 tons compared with last week. The device capacity utilization rate is 49.32%, a month - on - month increase of 2.16% [5]. - Supply - Import: In the period from March 12 to March 18, 2026, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol is 151,600 tons, including 131,000 tons of foreign vessels (all visible) and 20,600 tons of domestic vessels [5]. - Demand - MTO: As of March 19, 2026, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 40.23%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points compared with last week. The start - up rate of the national olefin devices is 85.57%, with the restart of the second - phase device of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei and the increase of the load of Tianjin Bohua [5]. - Demand - Traditional: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is 5.49%. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is 85.4%, remaining flat. The start - up rate of formaldehyde is 42.43%, an increase compared with last week [5]. - Demand - Direct Sales: The weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region is 55,400 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons compared with the previous statistical day, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.73% [5]. - Inventory - Enterprise: As of March 18, 2026, the inventory of production enterprises is 485,400 tons, a decrease of 37,700 tons compared with the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 279,300 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons compared with the previous period [5]. - Inventory - Port: As of March 18, 2026, the total port inventory is 1.2617 million tons, a decrease of 51,100 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in the East China region has decreased by 27,600 tons, and that in the South China region has decreased by 23,500 tons [5]. - Valuation: The chemical coal in the northwest region has stopped falling and rebounded. The domestic methanol auction price has risen sharply. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is around 860 yuan/ton, and that in northern Shaanxi is 800 yuan/ton. The port - north line price difference is 700 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference is 270 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has significantly narrowed, and the basis is stable [5]. - Spot Price: The price in Taicang is 2,990 yuan/ton (+200), and the price in the north line is 2,300 yuan/ton (+160) [8].