铁矿日报：短期扰动因素较多，基本面压力仍存-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Iron ore fundamentals are still weak, with a loose supply and rising hot metal production on the demand side. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand. Under the dual disturbances of supply and geopolitics, it's difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. The iron ore futures and spot show a positive basis and the BACK structure continues, with limited short - term downside space and a high - level oscillation pattern. Focus on further tests near the upper pressure [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated slightly stronger during the day, closing at 819 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.43% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 263,000 lots, the open interest was 442,000 lots, and the settled funds were 7.963 billion yuan. The short - term support is around 795 and the short - term pressure is around 825 [1] - Spot price: The mainstream port spot varieties, Qingdao Port PB powder, remained unchanged at 798 yuan, and Super Special powder remained unchanged at 675 yuan. The main swap contract was 108.25 (+0) US dollars/ton. The swap was in high - level oscillation and the spot price remained unchanged [1] - Basis and spread: The converted futures price of Qingdao Port PB powder was 829.1 yuan/ton, with a basis of 10.1 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 32.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 24 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Iron ore shipments increased month - on - month, while arrivals decreased. The shipping plans of mines were affected by the US - Iran conflict, and some cargo ships changed their destinations. Although the overall supply was still relatively loose, the shipment and arrival rhythm was affected, and the liquidity of some spot varieties was limited [2] - Demand: Hot metal production significantly rebounded, and the profitability rate of steel mills increased. After the Two Sessions ended, the environmental protection restrictions in Hebei were lifted, and the blast furnaces under maintenance resumed production. There was still room for the recovery of hot metal production, depending on the support of peak - season demand [2] - Inventory: Port inventory and berthing decreased slightly, while steel mill inventory increased. Without significant disturbances, it was difficult for the total inventory to show obvious destocking [2] Macro - level - Domestic: The "15th Five - Year Plan" outline was announced, raising the target of the added value ratio of the core digital economy industries, adding indicators related to people's livelihood, childcare, elderly care, and green non - fossil energy. The current domestic macro - economy is generally stable and has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. Domestic port container throughput and the CRB index are at seasonal highs, and the strong exports of South Korea in early March confirm the resilience of external demand [3] - Overseas: The US - Iran geopolitical conflict continues, and the expected reduction in crude oil supply continues to push up oil prices. The Fed's interest rate decision in March was hawkish, increasing the market's expectation of "stagflation" in the US economy in the second quarter, and the overseas economic operation logic will gradually shift from trading "inflation" to "stagflation" [3]