芳烃日报：春季检修叠加地缘局势-20260323

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Due to new developments in the Middle East situation, Iran's ultimatum, the strengthening of crude oil during the day, the spring maintenance, and the further reduction of production load in the domestic chemical industry, there is still room and momentum for the price to rise further in the later period, and the market should be treated strongly. It is necessary to focus on tracking the current US - Iran situation and crude oil trends [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The 600,000 - ton Gulei plant shut down for maintenance, and the load of individual plants was adjusted. Styrene production decreased by 3.12% to 360,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.32% to 71.79% [1] - Demand side: The downstream operating rates of styrene varied. The EPS operating rate decreased by 0.98% to 57.78%, the PS operating rate increased by 0.2% to 51.7%, the ABS operating rate decreased by 2.1% to 67.4%, the UPR operating rate increased by 3% to 38%, and the butadiene - styrene rubber operating rate decreased by 1.76% to 75.65% [1] - Inventory: Styrene factory inventory decreased by 7.70% to 191,900 tons, East China port inventory decreased by 10.88% to 156,500 tons, and South China port inventory decreased by 3.77% to 51,000 tons [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The state has taken temporary regulatory measures on refined oil prices. The actual increase in gasoline and diesel prices is 1,160 yuan and 1,115 yuan respectively [2] - Saudi Arabia has reduced its crude oil supply to Asian buyers in April, only supplying Arab light crude oil exported from Yanbu Port to long - term customers [2] - The head of the International Energy Agency, Birol, said that it may take six months to restore oil and gas supplies from the Gulf region [2] - Iran proposed four measures in response to Trump's "ultimatum" to open the Strait of Hormuz, including completely closing the Strait of Hormuz [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Due to new developments in the Middle East situation and Iran's ultimatum, crude oil strengthened during the day. With spring maintenance and further reduction of production load in the domestic chemical industry, there is still room and momentum for the price to rise further in the later period. The market should be treated strongly, and attention should be paid to the current US - Iran situation and crude oil trends [3]