玻璃、纯碱日报：日内走强-20260323

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The glass market is in a game between "supply contraction expectations" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - demand" (real - estate downturn), with high inventory being the biggest pressure on the price rebound. The market is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [1]. - The core logic of the soda ash market is the mismatch between high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Although short - term factors support the price, the fundamental driving force is weakening, and the market may face a downward adjustment. However, in the short term, it may be affected by the situation and be oscillating strongly [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Glass - Market performance: The main glass contract opened lower and closed higher, strengthening during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band shows a short - term oscillation signal. The intraday pressure is around the 10 - day moving average of 1090, and the support is around the lower Bollinger Band of 1040. The trading volume increased by 682,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 33,078 lots. The intraday high was 1094, the low was 1045, and the closing price was 1082, up 23 yuan/ton or 2.17% from yesterday's settlement price [1]. - Market situation: The real - estate data last month continued to be sluggish, and the recent recovery of downstream demand was also lower than expected. The spot market still faces the pressure of high inventory and weak demand. However, due to the geopolitical situation, the cost of energy and raw materials has risen sharply [1]. - Outlook: The market is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the recovery of terminal demand [1]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The main soda ash contract opened higher and closed higher, strengthening during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band shows a short - term (slightly stronger) oscillation signal. The pressure is around the upper Bollinger Band of 1290, and the short - term support is around the 10 - day moving average of 1240. The trading volume increased by 626,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 77,032 lots. The intraday high was 1266, the low was 1198, and the closing price was 1256, up 49 yuan/ton or 4.06% from yesterday's settlement price [2]. - Inventory situation: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8116 million tons, a decrease of 42,200 tons or 2.28% compared with last Thursday. Among them, light soda ash was 946,800 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons, and heavy soda ash was 864,800 tons, a decrease of 25,900 tons [2]. - Market situation: The mismatch between high supply, weak demand, and high inventory in the soda ash industry has not improved. Short - term geopolitical risks push up energy costs and marginal inventory reduction support the market. However, due to the expected reduction of float glass production and the impact of the photovoltaic industry, the rigid demand for soda ash is weak [2]. - Outlook: In the short term, it is expected to be affected by the situation and oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the changes in international energy prices and whether the high inventory of soda ash can continue to be reduced [4].