天然橡胶日报：震荡偏弱-20260323

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Weakly Oscillating" rating for the natural rubber industry [1] Core Viewpoint - Rubber prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the expected increase in supply as the tapping season begins, good demand recovery, but high inventory and rising bonded area inventory putting pressure on prices [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - On March 23, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,145 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +0.84% [1] - The price center of the natural rubber market rose slightly. In the Shanghai market, the intended transaction price of 24-year SCRWF mainstream goods was 16,000 - 16,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the intended transaction price of Vietnam 3L mixed rubber mainstream goods was 16,500 - 16,550 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] 2. Supply - The phenology of the world's major natural rubber producing areas is normal this year. Starting from the Yunnan production area in mid-March, the world will enter a new round of tapping season. The high raw material prices stimulate the enthusiasm for tapping, and the expectation of an increase in new rubber supply in the future is rising [2] 3. Demand - On March 20, 2026, the operating rate of China's semi-steel tires was 78.25%, higher than the average of the same period over the years, and the operating rate was high. The operating rate of China's all-steel tires was 70.72%, higher than the average of the same period over the years, and the operating rate was high [3] - The operating rate of tire production lines has recovered, the downstream purchasing willingness has increased, and the automobile export drive has exceeded expectations. There may be follow-up purchase orders. Attention should be paid to the subsequent resumption of work and the digestion progress under high prices and high inventory. In addition, the situation in Iran has intensified market risk aversion, and the rising shipping costs are not conducive to the recovery of the demand side [3] 4. Inventory - According to the research data of Zhuochuang Information, in the week of March 20, the inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 141,300 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons from the previous period, a rise of 1.29%. In the same week, the inventory of natural rubber in the general trade warehouses in Qingdao was 561,600 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from the previous period, a rise of 1.63% [4]