软商品日报：震荡为主-20260323

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Cotton is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile market in the short term, while sugar is estimated to continue its volatile upward trend [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - The domestic commercial inventory depletion process is accelerating, and the shortage of circulating resources at the end of this year is clear. The "Golden March" peak season for downstream textile has been confirmed, and the restocking demand has recovered. The planting area in the new year is expected to decline, and the market is bullish on the future. However, the implementation of 300,000 tons of processing trade quotas and the high internal and external price difference have enhanced import substitution, which has restricted the upward space of cotton prices. Trump's weekend remarks may worsen the Middle East situation, leading to restrictions on crude oil and chemical exports. The rise of crude oil has driven up the price of chemical fibers, indirectly driving up the price of cotton [1] Sugar - Due to the shortage of sugarcane, at least 179 sugar mills in Maharashtra, India, have stopped crushing operations. The problems faced by the sugar industry may intensify due to the shortage of sugarcane in this season and the expected drought in the upcoming rainy season. The cost of processing and paying taxes for Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,403 yuan/ton, and the cost outside the quota is 5,606 yuan/ton. The profit of processing and paying taxes for Brazilian sugar within the quota is 1,237 yuan/ton, and the profit outside the quota is 34 yuan/ton. The rise of the outer - plate raw sugar has narrowed the price difference between domestic and foreign sugar. Although the global sugar market is still loose, the raw sugar has gradually emerged from the trough due to the sharp rise in crude oil prices. With the narrowing of import profits, the downward space of sugar prices is expected to gradually shrink, and it is estimated that the subsequent trend may continue to rise in a volatile manner [1][2]