油粕日报：关注近月到港-20260323

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans, the recovery of Brazilian shipments eases concerns about near - month arrivals, and the acceleration of soybean harvesting in Brazil and improved conditions in Argentina may lead to a narrowing of near - month crushing margins if arrivals are normal and state reserves are released, but the decline space is limited due to high import costs [2] - For oils, short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, and the policy - driven benefits from countries like Indonesia, the US, and Brazil may be realized as crude oil prices remain high. Attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East situation around the end of the month [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Soybean and Soybean Meal - As of March 20, 2026, the harvest progress of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 65.79%, lower than 73.84% in the same period last year and slightly lower than the five - year average of 66.96% [1] - As of the week of March 18, 78% of Argentine soybeans were rated normal to good, with 79% of planting areas having suitable to optimal moisture conditions, which improved due to rainfall in some regions [1] - As of March 20, the total planned shipment of Brazilian soybeans to China from various ports was 8.538009 billion tons, slightly lower than last week but at a record high for the same period in recent years. The total shipment from Brazilian ports to China in March was 6.535711 billion tons, an increase of 2.624315 billion tons from last week [2] Oils - Brazilian biodiesel producers have the capacity to support a 20% blending ratio, and the association calls on the government to allow a higher blending ratio than the legal 15% to buffer energy shocks [2] - Before the policy release, the price of soybean oil futures has risen by 7% since the end of February, and the price of waste cooking oil has soared by more than 14% to 73 cents per pound [3] - Indonesia's B50, the US's new biofuel policy, and Brazil's B20 are all in preparation, and policy - driven benefits may be realized as crude oil prices remain high [3]