沥青周报-20260323

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of asphalt decreased last week, with the start - up rate dropping to 21.8%, and the national shipment volume decreasing by 37.6% to 10.99 tons. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand gradually recovered, and the start - up rates of most downstream industries increased. The inventory rate of asphalt plants decreased slightly, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The basis in Shandong was still low. Due to concerns about raw material shortages in domestic refineries and the tense situation in the Middle East, the price of asphalt is expected to be strong and volatile in the near future [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The asphalt start - up rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 21.8% week - on - week, 4.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, mainly because some refineries such as Tahe Petrochemical stopped work or reduced their loads [4][21]. - The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 37.6% to 10.99 tons week - on - week due to reduced supply from refineries in East China and high - price suppression of transactions [4][26]. Demand - In January - February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of road transportation was - 0.6%, showing a negative growth but an improvement compared with - 6.0% in January - December 2025. The cumulative year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 11.4%, a significant rebound from - 2.2% in January - December 2025 [31]. - After the Spring Festival, the start - up rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The start - up rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 10% week - on - week, still lower than the level at the end of January [4][31]. Inventory - As of the week of March 20, the inventory rate of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 17.6% week - on - week, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [36]. Price - The ratio of asphalt to crude oil rose to 5.76 [13]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 4,210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract dropped to - 247 yuan/ton, at a low level [16].