尿素周报：理性关注地缘干扰-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of urea is expected to remain firm in the short term, with the market showing high volatility. The current market is affected by international geopolitics, and its own supply - demand logic has weakened marginally. It is necessary to focus on the opportunity to return to the fundamentals after the sentiment fades [2]. - The inventory of urea is expected to continue to decline next week, and attention should be paid to the downstream's acceptance of high prices [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market Dynamics - Most regions' quotes remained stable over the weekend, with some factories lowering prices. After the futures rose today, the trading sentiment improved, and the spot price is expected to be firm in the short term. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan range from 1800 - 1840 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures market generally declined. By March 23, the main May contract of urea closed at 1884 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton compared to the settlement price on March 16. The weekly trading volume was 2349.83 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1590.28 million tons; the position was 849.71 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.15 million tons. On March 23, the urea warehouse receipt increased by 657 to 8715 [7][9]. - Last week, the increase of urea futures was less than that of the spot, and the basis weakened. As of March 23, the basis of the 05 contract was - 24 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 59 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Urea Supply Side - Last week, the weekly output of urea decreased. From March 12 to March 18, the weekly output of urea was 1.5194 billion tons, a decrease of 182 million tons compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%. The average daily output was 217,100 tons. Next cycle, 3 enterprises have复产 plans and 3 have shutdown plans. On March 23, the national daily output of urea was 216,500 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 86.31% [14]. - The price of coal and liquefied natural gas increased last week, while the price of synthetic ammonia decreased. The price difference between synthetic ammonia and urea in Shandong strengthened by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price difference between methanol and urea in Shandong increased by 170 yuan/ton week - on - week [15][18]. 3.4 Urea Demand Side - As of March 20, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 3350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. Compound fertilizer factories maintained a high - start - up and de - stocking trend, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to increase next week. As of March 20, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was 49.97%, a month - on - month increase of 4.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06% [21]. - From March 14 to March 20, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 59.31, an increase of 5.96 percentage points compared to the previous period and 2.53 percentage points higher than the same period last year [22]. - As of March 20, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 808,900 tons, a decrease of 148,700 tons compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 15.53%, and 229,100 tons lower than the same period last year. The port sample inventory was 167,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons compared to the previous week [23]. 3.5 International Market - The situation in Iran has not cooled down. Geopolitical conflicts have led to the shutdown of energy facilities, causing raw material suppliers and factories to shut down. International urea prices have increased significantly. India said it will not tender in the near term but is expected to take action at the end of March. Most urea - importing countries in the world are facing shortages [25]. - As of March 20, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China was 712.5 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 67.5 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of large - particle urea in China was 722.5 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 35 US dollars/ton [25][27].