国投期货能源日报-20260323

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The core variable of oil price trends depends on the smooth passage of the global energy transportation route. Geopolitical conflicts show no sign of easing, and oil price fluctuations may intensify [1]. - Fuel oil is expected to follow crude oil, with a solid lower support, be easily affected by news, and show a wide - range oscillating pattern [2]. - The fundamentals of asphalt have marginal improvement expectations, and its direction will follow oil price fluctuations [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Trump issued a 48 - hour ultimatum to Iran, and Iran responded with a severe warning. The gap between alternative pipeline capacity and normal oil transport volume through the Strait of Hormuz is large. The release of strategic oil reserves by IEA member countries is for emergency buffering and has replenishment needs. The key to oil price is the strait's passage, and attention should be paid to whether energy infrastructure is directly attacked [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical tensions over the weekend led to a sharp rise in fuel oil prices. Supply from the Middle East decreased, and although there are some alternative supplies, they are insufficient. Domestic refinery operating rates declined, increasing import demand. Overseas, LNG gas field attacks increased the demand for fuel oil. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the attack on Fujairah Port increased Singapore's bunkering demand, and supply is limited [2]. Asphalt - The military conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continues, and the traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz is low. Asphalt refinery supply tightened, and production decreased. Downstream demand is expected to improve with rising temperatures. Refinery inventory decreased, and social inventory increased slightly, but both are at near - three - year lows. The asphalt's direction will follow oil price fluctuations [3]