美元流动性收紧短期商品或震荡运行：大宗商品周度报告2026年3月23日-20260323

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity market pulled back 2.42% last week, with precious metals leading the decline at 11.29%, while energy - chemical and black commodities rose 1.64% and 0.08% respectively. The short - term commodity market may fluctuate due to tightened dollar liquidity [2][6]. - The Fed's hawkish stance in the interest - rate meeting last week pushed the dollar stronger, putting pressure on commodities. Geopolitical tensions support energy - related varieties, but the market may be volatile in the short term [2]. - Precious metals may remain weak as central banks' hawkish signals and rising oil prices increase inflation pressure, and the market expects the Fed may not cut interest rates this year [2]. - The non - ferrous metals sector is under pressure due to the high dollar index and cooling interest - rate cut expectations, but spot procurement provides some support [3]. - The black commodities sector may fluctuate strongly in the short term as terminal demand recovers, though steel mill profits limit the upside [3]. - Energy prices remained high last week due to geopolitical disturbances, and short - term oil price volatility may intensify [3]. - The chemical sector continues to be strong due to cost support and downstream resumption of production. Some products like methanol may be relatively stronger, while the polyester industry faces challenges [4]. - Agricultural products may experience increased volatility. Although they pulled back last week, biodiesel demand and supply uncertainties may affect prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Overall Market: The overall commodity market pulled back 2.42% last week. Precious metals led the decline at 11.29%, non - ferrous metals and agricultural products fell 4.1% and 1.9% respectively, while energy - chemical and black commodities rose 1.64% and 0.08% [2][6]. - Top Gainers and Losers: The top - gaining varieties were ethylene glycol, methanol, and asphalt, with increases of 13.2%, 11.66%, and 9% respectively. The top - losing varieties were silver, tin, and live pigs, with declines of 15.76%, 8.45%, and 8.34% [2][6]. - Volatility: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market changed little last week, with most sectors showing a slight increase in volatility [2][6]. - Fund Flow: The overall market scale decreased significantly last week, with net outflows in all sectors, mainly concentrated in precious metals and non - ferrous metals [2][6]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Precious Metals: Central banks' hawkish signals and rising oil prices increase inflation pressure. The market expects the Fed may not cut interest rates this year. International gold and silver show signs of breaking down, and the sector may remain weak [2]. - Non - Ferrous Metals: The high dollar index and cooling interest - rate cut expectations put pressure on the sector. However, spot procurement provides support as prices fall and downstream industries resume production, and high inventories may be at a turning point [3]. - Black Commodities: Terminal demand is recovering during the "Golden March and Silver April" period. Steel production is increasing, and inventories are starting to decline. Iron - water production has rebounded significantly, but steel mill profits limit further increases. Raw material prices are supported by factors such as geopolitical conflicts [3]. - Energy: Energy prices remained high last week due to geopolitical disturbances. The gap between alternative pipeline capacity and normal oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is large. Strategic oil reserve releases are mainly for emergency, and future oil price volatility may intensify [3]. - Chemical: The sector remains strong due to cost support and downstream resumption of production. Methanol may be relatively stronger, while the polyester industry faces challenges such as declining efficiency, low terminal demand, and inventory accumulation [4]. - Agricultural Products: Agricultural products pulled back last week due to global economic concerns. However, the value of biodiesel and supply uncertainties may lead to increased price volatility [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs: Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns, with an average decline of around 8%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 3,186.22 billion yuan, with a 0.23% increase. Trading volume increased significantly [38]. - Other ETFs: The energy - chemical ETF had a 0.44% return, the soybean meal ETF had a - 3.10% return, the non - ferrous metals ETF had a - 6.18% return, and the silver fund had a - 19.48% return [38].